Lee

Are you suggesting we use fav's as some sort of benchmark or anchor

quote:

This is an area that requires focus because being installed as the favourite before the race reflects the majority view - and that majority view is a valuable element of form.

A quote from VDW

I can see no sense in an untoward accent on favourites, (sorry Methodmaker), for what on earth are they but horses generally favoured for a variety of vague and fluctuating reasons only a third of which win anyway?

Boozer, was thinking the same thing this morning about the statement, the majority view being important.
As you probably know, in the siao article vdw went out of his way to make the distinction between false f/cast favs and genuine f/cast favs.How this is worked with the s/p fav situation (the majority view) im not yet sure?.

quote:

Originally posted by boozer:
Lee

Are you suggesting we use fav's as some sort of benchmark or anchor

quote:

This is an area that requires focus because being installed as the favourite before the race reflects the majority view - and that majority view is a valuable element of form.

A quote from VDW

I can see no sense in an untoward accent on favourites, (sorry Methodmaker), for what on earth are they but horses generally favoured for a variety of vague and fluctuating reasons only a third of which win anyway?

Conflicting views again from this method but i would say Lee is nearer the answer,But having never read any books on the subject maybe ive no place to comment,
Has Fulham found out yet if vdw was the village idiot or an inmate of the local nut house 30 yrs ago?

Walter
The subject of SP fav's has cropped up before
I forget exactly why The Missing link/ class form horses Stray shot Zamandra evaluation and why you should only back those 2 out of 6 whatever,
guests selections seemed be SP fav lto biased also, so he looked to be on that track

If there is any correlation of Sp favs and actual VDW selections IMHO I would think it is coincedance.

Rab

It would appear Fulham has found the true VDW
I could personally believe it
A lot dont want to believe it

I think Lee has endorsed same somewhere on this board
So he believes it, or so he says

The only reason I could see it being a hoax is
The superiour private deciples club have cracked the method and are making a killing and want everybody off the case.

Now that is unbeleivable

Hi Boozer

Aye fulham has found him,Ive heard he's not to keen on talking but i dont blame the guy,
If i had wrote a few letters over 30 yrs ago and a mad doctor arrived at the door asking questions dont think i would talk,

Imagine Saturday afternoon ch4 Derek thomson is just about to interview winning trainer/jockey of the best race on the card,
`Yes Derek won well didnt he,Placed him to win using the vdw method`

That would be unbelievable

Point being, vdw thought it important enough to identify potential false favs before the race was run.In fact from all the races in the siao article he only agreed with the forecasters view of the paper favs once with Kenlis?.Thus if we are to use the fav as a benchmark we better be sure he is fav on merit and not just the majority view.That`s how i see it at this point anyway.

Rab

Remember the im not giving anything away on a public forum excuse,
Because some people may make money writing books with the knowledge gained from others on here.


Fulham is now writing a book I believe

quote:

Thus if we are to use the fav as a benchmark we better be sure he is fav on merit

Good point Walter

A fav that wins is a good starting point

walter if you can discount the fav then its going to be better value can now see that should be the way forward see if the favs figures stands up if not move on to 2nd best down your grid

Aye i can just picture the good doctor rendering his victim senseless with Vulcan nerve pinch, then the dreaded mind meld, extracting what`s left of the wee mans noodles.

JIB, said fulham was left disappointed after the experience, can you imagine the anticipation leading up to it?.

YES! YES! YES! VDW`s going to give me an interview YES!.
Afterwards.
FFS! cnuts fkn useless .

quote:

Point being, vdw thought it important enough to identify potential false favs before the race was run.In fact from all the races in the siao article he only agreed with the forecasters view of the paper favs once with Kenlis?.Thus if we are to use the fav as a benchmark we better be sure he is fav on merit and not just the majority view.That`s how i see it at this point anyway

ref this post Walter don't the newspapers use form when they are looking into a race they are suposed to do all the digging for us with all their computer analyses this way could we not use this as a filter as well as the others

have fun

Michael in the siao article vdw actually tells us what the factors are that makes a horse a genuine fav or otherwise.In his opinion of course.

Aye writing a book,Peach has made a fortune from writing books on this subject,
Anyway i still think its all down to trainer intentions by the way they place them,
Some know what their doing and others appear to be pissing in the wind hoping for a good run

Les, thought you were away tae the match the day?.

yes lift late of in the next five mins drop near ground then taxi

For at least ten years, I have believed that the key to racing centres around the favourite.
This view is confirmed by the money on buttfair and also by the traditional betting in the ring; how the bookie does hinges on what happens to the fav; in most cases, they want the fav beat.

Anyway, I tried studying favs for about three years. The aim was to learn to tell the difference between good ones and bad ones. I regret to say that I didn't do very well.
Besides the problem of not knowing which ones were bad fkrs, or " not off", or losers for any other "reason", I found that the returns were so low ( bc of the prices)that backing favs just wasn't worth my while.

I tested with favs that had 10 or more votes in the Racing Post Selection Box AND were top-rated on A Massey.
Over the years these lost me about 9%.

Right now, there's a guy on btfart forum running a thread where he lays the selection of UK's top paper tipster ( most winners from near daily selections) A. Keyte.
The laying thread makes a profit!
What's even better is that one dude has found a good way of predicting which ones are going to win ( so , obviously, you back those instead of laying them). It's done in the last few minutes before the off. The guy watches the money on btfr; if there comes a million £s (total) to back one, then he reckons they rarely lose.
Very interesting, imo.

Finally, I'd like to ask the vdw-ers: when checking what has beaten your carefully considered selections, have you found that more often than not it is the favourite that did it?
If so, perhaps the way forward is to dutch them?

In my own betting, i found it was happening a lot to me. It didn't seem to bug me as much as when some completely unconsidered runner ( say Hattan on saturday) flew home.

Not the right attitude, I know. Punters are supposed to be neutral to the occasional defeat.

sean

Interesting re Trainers intentions and Hattan.


In the interview afterwards, - the win didn't come as a suprise to Clive Britain.

He said that all the family are late developers, and that he knew that Hattan wouldn't come good until 5 years old.

He knew that had happened because over the winter, the horse had put on 20 kilos, whilst the norm is 3 to 4 kilos.

In his words, - over the winter, Hatton had grown , from a boy into a man !!

Now , there is a trainer who knows how to place a horse

tc

Yes, I agree, TC.

It also shows how important that bit of data they dont't want to give us is: the animal's weight.

A good paddock watcher would of noticed this though. That's one edge you can get from going racing and some thing VDW never mentioned as far as I know.