led,headed,led,headed

Sean - I've gone for the same pair. Is it "great minds think alike" or "fools seldom differ"?

I think JIB is using Government as an example - not an up and coming - the race before he won he led, was headed, then led again.

Unless I have made a mistake which is possible as I havent touched my databases for at least 4 years

2003 flat all races
"led again"
NTO runners scored 11 out of 72

HI LADS

Does anybody no how to recognize a prep race, and once the horse has been preped how many races in between before the horse goes for the win.

I'm sure JIB does, Paul, but Iknow i'm a bit hazy about it.

From all the other helpful replies, the very positive comment, that we'd like to see, does seem to
involve the word "led", with " led again" being the key, perhaps?

Thanks to all for this. I remember reading N Mordin, in Odds-On mag years ago, saying "led" was a very good comment.

I think the main proviso is that it shouldn't be "led from the gate and weakened", as this is often the tactic of those who have no intention of winning, imo.

But that "led and led again" must surely be a good one. It shows the combo are trying, if nothing else.

I'll guess now that if this takes place in the last 2f of the race, then we are probably on a winner.

Paul,

One thing you can look for are the future entries. Prep races can take many forms and I don't hold to the idea that winning them is necessarily important. There were several horses in certain races which had won their prep races before Cheltenham, but of course only one of them would be successful on the day.

Boozer,

I stick to hcps.

Also dont forget the quality of opposition has to be assayed. In the case of Government I would have been v confident of a win nto because it was dropped into a banded race which is the submarine shitehouse of racing. But on other occasions if connections were hoping to get a good price for a decent amount of money they may want to put some smoke between the comments and the win.

how much smoke john 1 race 2 races as much as it takes within its last 6 i,d say,the grade it wants to win? the track it wants to win in? for its prep race

JIB

I think the strongest ones I have seen based on led is the confirmed front runner that is on the right mark
Leads just inside the final furlong and gets beat over a trip 1fur too far or a course too stiff in a good class race
NTO
drop in class over a shorter trip or less demanding course
Sprinters especially

Common sense really and it works if you have the patience to specialise and wait

i,ll have an other go with, finished fast,thats always a good one i think it will contain something to do with speed as a lot of horses dont finish there races well

Have a look at The Kiddykid after his 12th of 14. Particularly encouraging was the use of the adverb 'soon' by the commentator for that run.

I had him for the place as well as the win nto. I got enough from that to withstand the other two smoke races. I had him at 43/1 when he won!

does timeform not use,will soon be winning, its years since i usrd the black books

RP:

'led for 1f, stayed prominent, led again over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, not pace of winner.'

S-Life:

'led, headed after 1f, ridden to lead again over 1f out, one pace and headed inside final furlong opened 14/1 touched 16/1'.

Calloff The Search 235L

Lto five 50+ horses behind him. Today only one (52) opposing.

On the downside the distance is not his usual one.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

John interesting that you should put this horse up because it's also caught my eye.I think if you look at this horses form the trainer is really telling us that they are trying today.I will probably be backing this tomorrow depending on the price.Only negative is that it doesn't win that often, but I think it will go close today.

Runs as though the distance may suit
Been headed last 3 times in the final f over 6
Just a pity theres no drop in class (to make the pulse quicken)

I stepped on it at 9/1 the win and 5/2 the place.

I stepped off at 5/1 and 11/10.

Wrong about the distance judging by todays race
was outpaced

Sean,

With a helpful nudge, you should now see that what a horse does from the distance, or doesn't do, can only be gauged by the opposition that it faces. What happens down the field is of no real interest to us as form students.

The next problem is how the elements of VDW's equation go together to weigh up acurately if there is a winner in the race; as stated previously consistency is key at each stage. Probability is odds and as we all know, when looking at the form of a past race the best horse (the winner) in the race isn't always favourite. This is an area that requires focus because being installed as the favourite before the race reflects the majority view - and that majority view is a valuable element of form. How the race pans out, and who is involved from the distance is the crucial element to weighing up form. What did the winner do in each of its last 3 races? Was it involved from the distance? Who was it involved against? This will help evaluate the strength of the race its just won. VDW said to go back as far as you like, and that the exercise would be useful.

The problem can be tricky though because the class of race in which a horse runs is important - the prize is the most important element in horse racing, without the prize racing wouldn't exist and those who suggest that prize money, as a gauge to class, is useless, are missing a trick. The majority view coupled with how the race pans out will also assist in identifying those horses that are ready to win. What the trainer does next can then be analysed.

When everything lines up the horse in question is seldom beaten. Our own temperament is the only thing that will then stand in our way. It will get all of us who try, just some will suffer more than others.

Vanman suggests that I don't know what I'm talking about - maybe he's right.

Cheltenham is over as ever it was special and invigorating.The festival owes everything to the magnificence and strength and courage of the racehorses,without which it would be nothing.The hairs on the back of my neck are still standing from the memory of Master Minded,Ingles Drever the Gold Cup etc.

Aftertiming is not appreciated but my week went as follows,nothing on Tuesday.Thursday Albertas run and Ingles Drever backed to win,I place bet Our Vic (chickened out,)and yesterday I backed Kauto Star to win,which if the race was run again tomorrow I would still back Kauto Star.I also made a book with Franchoek and Celestial Halo although I wasn't sure if that was the right thing to do.

Temperament was tested a bit especially after no bets on Tuesday but a most enjoyable week all in all,if only every week was the same.

The lambasting of jockeys in the betting ofices,brought a smile to my face,as I remember doing the same in the past,but I know that if my selections are beaten it is not the jockeys fault,it is my own fault,no one else is to blame.

The next step for me is to record all the necessary information from the Cheltenham results to assist in future winner finding,I'll put it on hold until after St Patricks Day,has passed,the head will be clearer then.I hope.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Pipedreamer,

A bit late in replying, but thanks, Lee, for the helpful nudge. I probably need more of a good kick up the arse, but not to worry!

Nice to see you back, pipedreamer.
I was at Cheltenham and, imo, denman looked the part, wheras KS did not.

Still, 'tis over now for another year, thank fk!

Hello Lee,

I suggested, on this board, after that last selection that you were getting there. Not that you didn't know what you were talking about(as you put it). You could be having ten bets a week and that was the only loser for all I know. In which case who cares if we have an evens loser-it happens. A problem only arises when we have waited and waited and something unexpected happens, then we know that we are not there yet.

I am sometimes asked to check over selections, or a series of selections, of yours and see what I think. Do you not agree (concerning that one selection) that next time out he was a good thing? The differences between the trainers finesse can be huge a point VDW drew our attention to with his comments on Joinery. That particular selection, intimated to me at least, that having 7/10 of the picture still leaves 3/10 missing. There were many factors in the horses favour as I am sure you found, and it is no mean feat to get that far and think you understand how all the pieces apparently slot together.

I am in a funny position, I am glad my temperament is Shite, it has helped to keep me looking for ALL the answers.

Then again I could have all of the above completely wrong and its me who is ignorant.

DARK CORNER is the horse concerned in this instance.

PS. I have just read my previous comments and they were probably a bit harsh, Sorry. I still remember the last time you pissed up my back you see,and it still niggles. poor form on my part.