Result, 25 Feb.

1st, 5/1
4th, 14/1

unplaced 5th and 6th.

Not too bad. All four to place would have made profit, which is more than can be said about the favourite.

My computer has been playing up, but I didn't see many selections here.

Is there anybody interested in racing, or is this just a nutters' convention?

4/6 Nutters
5/4 interested in racing

Sean have you joined the other place, You know the vdw-collection forum?

or Oldtimers precis on the tips thread here are worth a read, amongst others.

IMP,

Thanks for the kind advertising. One of the reasons I moved elsewhere is that this has become a thread where people are so busy trying to score points off one another that its original function has to a large degree got lost.

Among the few posters that have not been so diverted seems to be Lee, but for many of the others it is just to put down the whole concept. For what reason I can't imagine, except perhaps boredom or some sort of impish so-called humour.

To my mind, if you don't agree with something, fine, but I can't see the need to disrupt a possible source of information (valuable or not) for others by needless derogatory comments often aimed at individuals.

No doubt I am old-fashioned, but I was brought up to respect a person's rights to air their views, providing that in so doing they did not impinge on the rights of others to do the same, or to ridicule them for their views.

As my mother said when she was ageing, "I'm glad I don't have too long to live in this modern world." As I too draw towards life's end, it's a sentiment I can now understand.

Oldtimer

No, I haven't, Imp.

I visited once, found some evasion and a lot of vagueness re VDW himself.

Deleted the bookmark from favourites, and probably will never look in there again.

Quite, frankly, I don't see many putting up better selections than most of us, so I became a bit disillusioned.

Old Timer's threads are always good. I hadn't noticed a VDW link.

Posted on another thread - not by me but by Fulham .

Just for once I think he may be correct.

"Oldtimer" -

The way you've been going, you should be optimistic about Cheltenham.



The VDW approach should in principle work well at Cheltenham - as one can be sure that virtually every horse will be at its peak and trying. And the results suggest to me that in practice it does. In the last couple of years there have I think been seven handicaps at each Festival and five over the two years have been won by c/fs, at sps from 4/1 to 10/1.

Greg/investor/pro,

Have you give up with the windows yet?

OT
I hadn't even realised you were a closet VDW fan until I saw your user name on the other board, and yours is the only name I was both surprised and disappointed to see 'coming out' on that site.
Having been a contributor and reader of this thread for some time now, and a passionate believer in VDW, I feel reasonably qualified to answer some of your points.
The REAL problem that has caused this thread most of its suffering in the past is the number of posters who have regaled us with their post race wisdom, from the more subtle naming of 3 or 4 horses from the first 6 in the betting, (long odds on to name the winner somewhere, and claim it as the c/f horse afterwards) to the downright barmy.
At the moment, this thread is rather quiet, IMO for 2 reasons, Gummy's reluctance to 'go public', and the deluded have found a safe haven, for the moment, elsewhere, (with the occasional migration of their court jester).
However, there are already signs that all is not well in their kingdom, and I have little doubt that, as realisation dawns on the more innocent, this thread's previous problems will be replicated on there.
All things considered, the original aim is, as you say, to find out the truth about VDW, and there is already far more truth on this thread than you are ever likely to find on there.
God forbid the day this thread has to prostitute itself on other sites, as so many appear to do on here.

John D,

There was nothing closet about it, as anyone who has bothered to read my daily attempts on the various threads I have put up over the past 3 – 4 years would have realized where I am coming from. Not well I admit, but at least making a reasoned attempt.

Obviously you haven't been a regular reader, so perhaps that's where your ˜surprise' stems from. I rather chuckled at ˜disappointed' though, for I have been in contact with some of the people on ˜that site' as you term it, plus others, for 2 years or more.

It's a matter of getting to ˜know' people, those you feel who will make comments in a rational manner, which while you may not always entirely agree with, at least give food for thought. As with any such site, including this which does have some useful posts, it's all a matter of sorting the wheat from the chaff. This of course is a hazardous course, but as far as I am concerned it's a matter of considering what seems logical and putting to one side, but not entirely yet discarding, that which does initially not.

My personal progress has been retarded due to geographical, financial and time constraints. It seems perfectly logical to me that the most crucial element of understanding revolves around how VDW determined ˜form' and as he didn't go into much depth in this area, it also appears logical to me that this understanding is most likely to be obtained from study of the examples he gave. Hence the problems with the constraints, though I am working on this slowly but surely.

In relation to your own posting in which you say "I feel reasonably qualified to answer some of your points," I still see no need for comments such as, and I quote "and the deluded have found a safe haven, for the moment, elsewhere, (with the occasional migration of their court jester)." To me this smacks of arrogance.

Maybe you have worked it all out and are happily coining money from your 80-85% strike rate, but the only person I have seen post on here that I would suspect of being close to that mark would be Lee, who wisely makes no claims either way in regard to strike rate.

There is of course every possibility that ˜that site' will eventually go the way of this and others, but at present it is being stimulated by fresh blood who are in the main courteous.

Of course, there is also the possibility that it is all one giant hoax and that VDW never existed. For those who truly hold this view, I respect their right to their opinion. However, to suggest that because nobody is prepared to demonstrate that they can hit an 80% strike rate long-term the ideas are all hogwash is at best a little naïve.

I personally suspect that anyone who is hitting that sort of rate is also quietly making their money, taking foreign cruises and steering clear of all VDW forums.

Oldtimer

pk,windows?

Ot
Investor/Pro vacillates according to results, Fulham/AlanB does the same with more sophistication!
As you say, it is a matter of getting to know people!

JohnD
Iv'e just been looking at the new 80% thread,My eyes were automatically drawn to the bottom of the list which you normally frequent.Shock Horror...Your name isn't there.So i looked a little further up ****ing hell he can't be winning.Then i saw your name wasn't there. .What's up are you affraid of another 1 from 24.And You feel you can answer questions on vdw.Get a grip man.

johnd

Thank you for your contributions !

Without them
-
I fear that this thread would not have survived



tc

.It died a long time ago and JohnD only added to that unfortunate death.

Tc
Thanks!


ps The worst thing you can do with an attention-seeker is to feed him.

If T.Peache wanted to produce a worthwhile "New Book" - he should gather all the "Form" relating to the VDW examples, and stick it all into one Booklet !!

He would make a "Fortune" !!

- so would any other VDW'r !!

OT,

As one of the most prolific and eloquent writers to have contributed to this board I always followed your earlier posts, You will probably remember the one that used the Adrian Massey ratings, I have it saved on my hard-disk it is that good.

OK maybe it didnt make a profit but the winner was usually one you had thrown out at the last stages of your selection process.

Your methods were logical and easy to follow, for they were written with crystal clarity. I think that the natural hcp SR of 20-30% disheartened you and you decided to investigate the promises of the vdwers 80%
srs.

On Saturday Fulham clearly identified a c/f horse (Buckby Lane), it came 10th. Believe me neither Investor nor Barney nor any other of the so called experts has anything to teach you.

You have always been able to do far better than their pre-race efforts. Even the one I have the most time for, Mtoto, as he can argue logically, has no other living soul to confirm he makes a profit at his racing because for some perverse reason he refuses to put up his selections even 60 secs before the off. As he cant offer a logical explanation for that I cannot accept his claims. I might as well accept a claim from Gummy that he can turn lead into gold!

JIB,

Eloquent as ever, and yes the Massey thing did go well for a time. However, odd times that I've kept an eye on it since have not seen the same success. I have a feeling that he's not doing as well as he used to, maybe Tannis would have a better idea as he's followed him pretty well this last year or so.

Had I ever achieved a 20-30% strike rate I would have been happy to continue, but the highest strike rate I've ever managed to hit for any length of time in my life is around 15%, which has always proven to be both non-profitable and accompanied by the soul-destroying losing runs of 50, 60, 70, 80, 90+.

The reasons I started to study the VDW process some 4 years ago is that I find the underlying proposition very logical, plus it would have been nice if I could have lifted my strike rate to 20-25% - forget 80%, as I have neither the time nor the access to data required to be able to study the process in the depth it deserves.

I guess it was a last hope that I might stumble across something that could turn a profit, as I never have found any method in my life by which I can make a profit - remember when Gummy's Kiss selections went on an unheard of losing run? That was me following them for a while!

So to me VDW remains an intellectual exercise, as after nigh on 50 years following the horses I know it is totally impossible for me ever to make money by backing them. The last time I placed any bets was over 20 years ago, the last time I was in the UK, when I managed to use up my two grand betting bank in 5 weeks, and that included backing the Grand National winner - plus a whole host of losers of course!

So like I said, the whole process remains an intellectual exercise to fill in time and give me an interest in something in the waning years of my life - I'm afraid my current job hardly fills that roll.

Thus the Internet to me is a means of communication and fills in for a social life that circumstances have forced me to abandon. It is not a matter about whether anyone can 'teach' me anything or not, but merely the ability to gather other people's views that I can evaluate in my own time.

FYI, Buckby Lane was also my selection on Saturday, as well as many others, but I did not have any reservations as to the weight. However, I was right the Saturday before with Farmer Jack.

The reason I post little in the way of serious comment is that I would hate to delude anyone that I knew anything about how to pick winners - one thing that can never be levelled at me is that I was a false prophet or arrogant enough to believe that I had found the Holy Grail.

I ask for nothing but to be allowed to live out my final days, however long they may be, in a certain contentment (but a bunch of frustration) that making money from backing horses will always be beyond me. That does not mean that I won't stop trying to come up with something though.

Keep up with your lists, as I'm sure that you are not yet the whole way there either, but at least you're a damn sight closer than me!

Cheers (it's time to go to bed)

Oldtimer

who sings these songs?

1, Every time you go away,
you take a piece of me with you...
Every time you go away,
you take a piece of me with you.

2, Since you've been gone
I shut my eyes
And I fantasize
That you're here with me
Will you ever return?
I want you satisfied
'Till you're by my side
Don't wait any longer..
Why don't you come back?
Please hurry, Why dont you come back?
Please hurry...
Come back and stay for good this time
Come back and stay for good this time

the best white soul singer. Mr Paul Young.

oooh yeah Toast.

Bumped into him on my way to Malta....Paul...Paul....Paul....Y****