quote:

First, a general question, which I hope applies to ALL forms of racing:

how can we best measure PACE scientifically - in your experience?

Second, what really "happens" when a runner " kicks on"?
"Pressing the button"; " turn of foot"; " finding nothing".

What do you make of this lot - from a human runner's perspective?

Sean in our School we went on the winning times registered in previous years at any particular event as the benchmark.
There was no way to scientifically measure pace as such, that part was coached into the runner as part the training. As the meeting drew closer however we would plan two time trials with the marks usually being set up to suit the man being prepared, depending on the individual.
This gave us all the information needed (1) we had a good idea of what it would take to win the targeted race (2) we had all the runners marks available by that time (often by hook or crook) (3) We had an athlete ready to run for the money provided everything had gone well.
Your second question may be posed with a slightly different intent?, any athlete, human or equine will lose a degree of control over the situation when oxygen depth kicks in or when they are brought out of thier personal comfort zone. Whatever the class may be, they then become exposed either positively or negatively as a result.

"
Don't know whether it is me or you, but we are definitely at cross-purposes. I will repeat He definitely, absolutely, unquestionably, categorically, DID use race-reader's comments!"; JD

----
Yes, JohnD, I know you believe and follow that, BUT

there does seem to be conflicting views fro OTHER VDW-ers ( self-proclaimed, admittedly.

That is the problem for folk watching from the sidelines; we don't know which to believe!

As I said, I accept race-reader's comments myself, so now it's up to those who don't to make their case.

Frankly, i haven't a clue what vdw thought or did, and, anyway, I am a non-believer. There was no such person, imo.

However, I love racing and i do fdind some of the vdw discussion very useful and interesting.
That's the only reason I'm here at all.

Just a simple, curious , bye-stander.

Thanks again, Walter.

So, it seems "overall time of race" was/is the main figure you'd measure?
Everything else would be "sorted" from this?

Very interesting.

I have a bit of understanding of the feeling of being outclassed; as a young teenager I went over to play in a soccer match. I was middling good at soccer, but not brilliant.
We had to play a team who were basically the "C" team of Swindon Town ( pro English club).
I only saw the ball about three times. In a flash they were in and away. Far too quick for me!
The only success I had was when I accidently elbowed the bloke marking me , but even with him left lying on the ground, I wasn't quick enough to score. The fkrs were like mercury!

I think a similar experience occurs when a horse " gets taken off its feet". Just cannot live with the pace.

I would like to add to the above that on occasion, once the full list of competitors were known, an under-par performance would probably suffice if the main threats were off thier running at the time, course this was never conveyed to the runner.

hi les,
not sure which rating or if colletral form was used.. lee, mentioned this was not used..on the forum a while back..pity he does not contribute any more..be interesting if any members form the private vdw, forum joined in..

He definitely, absolutely, unquestionably, categorically, DID use race-reader's comments!

If the above is true it then begs the question who's comments did he read when assesing the Erin? As far as I can see there are no race comments for races run in Ireland or France, well not in the form books or racing papers of the day. Not only did he select winners that had form from these races, he also had to eliminate possible dangers with form in them.

In the example of race comments given for Roushayd they are very similar and that is fair enough. However which/who's comments would he or you take into account when looking at Killwarren in Love From Verona's race? The comments in the form book or those shown in the Life, this horse had form figures of 101, one of the lowest three for consistency in the forecast and was the forecast favourite. There can be little doubt this horse would have been seriously considered. The form book reads for the 2nd last race (the 0) prominent to 5th weakened next, the life reads soon in touch every chance when hampered bend after three out not recover.

No spin, no backward and forward or round and round, just a straightforward interpretation of the form in exactly the way VDW showed us in SIAO.
Those that couldn't understand it made up their own stories, often using ability ratings or speed figures, neither of which he mentioned in his original appraisal.
Go figure!

While I can see there is no spin in the writen race comments, for me the spin comes in when it makes this a good/interesting run in the context of VDW's words.......and most important, how they performed in the later stages of each race. The long and short of it is he DIDN'T perform. There is only one fact that makes this a good run. plain and simple, he had just run his personal best. Better even than when he won that big Ascot race. Much is being made of the importance of the race comments fair enough, what about the comments for the horse he just beat? That horse has an "eased" against it in every race comment I have seen, R didn't have that.

From memory I think it was Guest who said VDW didn't take race comments into account. As they are just one person's opinion. At the same time he said VDW wouldn't ever take the OR into acount for the same reason.

Be Lucky

So nice to hear from you again, mtoto!

I was only asking about you the other day!. You were a great help to me the last time I attempted to look into this sensitive subject.

My edge lies elsewhere, so I'll remain on the sidelines while you try sort out the ifs and buts of this one.
Luckily, it's not my problem, but i do vaguely remember that the question of the Irish racing was yet another nail in the vdw coffin for me. In fact, much the same point that you raise here yourself.

I'll retreat to cover at once, as I sense the big guns are about to open fire.

And, thanks again, I will be lucky!

1. Readers Comments

My question then is, if he didn't use race readers comments, (which I think he probably did), how would he know what a horse did in the final two furlongs that he stated is so important?

2. Opinions

Also, whereas I agree that one persons opinion alone is not enough by itself, several opinions taken together can be used to form a picture. For example, ratings (or at least, the method of formulating a rating) may sometimes be based on personal opinion, such as the OR. Yet ratings form part of the VDW method as a guide to the horses class. The AR is a non-opinionated method of forming a rating. But this is to be used in conjunction with two other ratings, and those ratings were left to the individuals choice, which means they may well contain a degree of opinion.

Furthermore, VDW offered other - shall we call them "lesser methods" - quick ways of finding a selection based on the Selection Box i.e. a combination of the opinions of professional race analysts.

That's my 6d worth. Make of it what you will. I'm not an 80%er!!

BlackCat

Mtoto

P/Kings finishing race comments were in Race/Form note book,they only gave the first five or six finishers.I missplaced the book some while ago. It will turn up when least expected.

Trypod

P/Kings finishing race comments were in Race/Form note book,they only gave the first five or six finishers.

Trypod,

Interesting, I take it the Notebook is different to the Raceform form book. Can I ask if they gave race details did they also give the Split Second speed figures?

I'm not for one moment saying VDW wouldn't have read the race comments, I do have doubts about them being a basic part of the methods. Haven't you ever read the race comments of a race and wondered if they are talking about the same race as you have just seen?

Be Lucky

Mtoto

Race finshes and how they performed, weights age ect, just like the results in the post. I am fairly sure there was no Sf's but most definatly no handicap ratings.

Trypod

quote:

I'm not for one moment saying VDW wouldn't have read the race comments, I do have doubts about them being a basic part of the methods. Haven't you ever read the race comments of a race and wondered if they are talking about the same race as you have just seen?

I sometimes watch football matches like that - you listen to the after match comments and wonder if they were taking about a different game!!

Mtoto

I don't have a Chaseform notebook for that particular season, as I didnt subscribe until a few years later. However, I can tell you that they did cover the better Irish racing in some detail, with form comments, Raceform Ratings, and in some cases s/f.

Regarding Roushayd, he most definitely did perform in the Northern Dancer, that is unquestionable, fits exactly with the method as VDW described it, and leaves no doubt about the improvement in his form from his previous race, once his approach is fully understood.
However, just using a part of the method, as with s/f's, a/r's, or any other rating, will not give you the full picture, which is no doubt why you are so insistent he didn't.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,

Yet again, the neutral outsider looking in is left
not knowing what to think.

Personally, my original conclusion that there is a lot of bollix attached this vdw methodology
remains as strong as ever.

I believe too that to know what a horse did in the last two furlongs then we need information about it,
be it first hand or second hand.

Without that, folk can argue till they're blue in the face and get nowhere, imo.

Anyway, is there good reason to suppose Kauto Star may not win the Gold Cup?
I hope there is - but, that's all it is for me; hope. My bet went on in February.

To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important, how they performed in the later stages of each race".

Sean, pace/time/sf`s/going allowance, ive never seriously looked into this aspect of horse racing,does it work?.Having just searched the archives i see there are a few of you that the rest of us could learn from, id find it interesting anyway.

Yet again, the neutral outsider looking in is left not knowing what to think.

Sean,

I don't quite understand the above statment. If your talking about what Roushayd did or didn't do in the last two furlongs surely the only thing to do is make up your own mind. You have seen the race comments and the recent form of the horse is easy enough to find on the RP site.

JohnD isn't alone in believing R did enough in the Epsom race for the bare form to show this horse was on the boil and ready to win. I can't see it, and when pushed the usual answer seems to be he ran a better race here against Vouchsafe than when they last meet. I don't know if that is/was the criteria VDW is/was looking at when he says R had improved, but if it is it doesn't hold up for me. VDW says both these horses had improved what is that based on? R improved because he reversed the placing with V, but why is that a sign of improvment when it clearly states V was eased? You have the facts what do you think? I can't make any sense of this if as JohnD (and others) insist s/f have nothing to do with this method. Can you? I'm not saying anyone has to take any notice of what I think but without the s/f I can't see the logic. With VDW followers being the way they are no one is very going to explain in plain English why they think R works without the s/f, and for me this VDW looked at form in a different way just doesn't hold up. I can find little or no reason to think VDW wasn't logical and the answers can be found when logic is applied.

Anyway, is there good reason to suppose Kauto Star may not win the Gold Cup?

Last year I backed Exotic Dancer (e/w) as I didn't think KS's jumping would hold up under pressure + I didn't think he would get the trip at Cheltenham. We all know the race was run to suit KS as the pace wasn't up to much in fact it was quite slow. I thought perhaps this year the owner would one of his better horse as a pacemaker and ED would win. ED has had a hold up in his prep and I do worry my e/w bet now will go astray. On the bare figures Denman has a fair bit to find, but I do think his pace in the last third of the race will at least keep KS honest, and if there is a flaw in his stamina it will be found out. I wouldn't back either at the prices, and of course will be hoping for a true run race and ED grabs them both coming up the hill.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Had Vouchsafe not run in the Northern Dancer, Roushayd would have still have shown significant improvement.
Those who use ratings (a/r or s/f) or even "how he performed in the closing stages" to solve the puzzle are depending on just one factor, which isn't how VDW operated, as he made clear many times.


ps And it is entirely logical.

Walter,

I'm no authority but i do look at Topspeed - mainly at the instigation of poor old Swish!

It did help, but it's still a guessing game, imo.
I make less than 10% profit year after year, but I'm working on it and, at least, I don't lose overall!

I'm afraid, though, that I have favourite jockeys; watch headlads to see if or how much they're betting; and do some weird hunch bets!

So, even though I've spent hours checking out various ideas, I must warn you that I'm not in a position offer much.
What I can tell you, is that any time I express an opinion it is sincere and based on my experiences.

Mtoto,

John's reply above should show you why i'm confused: it's a bit like a child whose dad says one thing while his mammy says the opposite.
The kid doesn't know what to do, and in this case, I'm the kid here!

It's not a personality thing. I'm easy with both yourself and John, but i think you'll agree that the two of you see things differently.
No harm there, imo.

JohnD,

i've no idea which statement is correct and which isn't. I'm more into trying to make a profit in today's world.
As i said to mtoto, it's nothing personal, as far as i'm concerned. I'm easy about the whole thing!

Btw, ED was my bet too! It's a longshot. I'll be there next week whatever the result!

sean the only way to find out who's right is to do your own research.Nobody knows it all though and we can all learn from each other.I've put a a lot of hard work into checking things out as I'm sure many others have.hard work is one of the essential building blokes of winning.

Thanks, Maggsy.

I don't class punting as work, even though it's about the only thing I do ( bar housework ), and, I do put a lot of time and effort into it.

I've had a go at working things out on Jack's thread.

Comments welcome - ESPECIALLY adverse and critical ones.
It's the quickest way to improve, imo, and luckily, I'm a lot better than I was fifty years ago.
Punting that is - I'm fkn useless at everything else nowadays!