quote:

Originally posted by IMP:
Anyone want to buy 50 old form books -

£100 the lot -

pick up only -

cash on collection -

Imp - you are funny.

What did mr Pointment do in the last few furlongs?VDW said this would often give the answers.If you read the in running comments from his last two races it says Stayed on Strongly and Quickened.I don't have a problem with those comments in fact quite the reverse. There was other factors that I think were against it winning though.Unless the evaluation adds up to 95% certainty then VDW said to leave it a lone.(That doesn't mean that it has a 95% chance of winning though)This means being disciplined and selective.This is were many fall down in my view in trying to find to many bets.

Seanrua
Member
Posted November 22, 2004 11:28 PM Hide Post
"Thanks for posting that comment by Peach. The split race time could be a modern adaptation Of "looking what a horse does, or does not do at this stage will provide the answers."
: PKboy.


I realise I'm harping on about " what a horse does in in the last two furlongs", but I find this puzzle intriguing.

From what I know, a horse can do one of five basic things:

1) Run faster
2) Run slower
3) Run at one pace
4) Run out or veer/hang
5) Breakdown/pull up/fall

If I watch the race I can draw my own conclusions from what I see.

If I read or hear about the race, I can draw my own conclusions from what someone else says they saw.

If there are sectional times, I can draw my own conclusions from figures provided by someone else.

Otherwise, I can think of no way of " looking what a horse does".

I just hope and pray that we don't have to bring in Paul Daniels.
Posts: 1574 | Registered: April 23, 2004

Ignored post by Seanrua posted November 22, 2004 11:28 PM Show Post

johnd
Member
Posted November 23, 2004 04:11 AM Hide Post
From someone who was around at the time, it may be worth pointing out to the younger element that the class disparity between Epsom and Redcar was probably much greater then, than it is now, hence their use in the example.
Posts: 1823 | Registered: August 20, 2002

Ignored post by johnd posted November 23, 2004 04:11 AM Show Post

Determined
Member
Posted November 23, 2004 06:09 AM Hide Post
Seanrua,

I,like you am intrigued by what a horse does in the final 2 furlongs.

The experts suggest that a race readers comments is just one person's opinion and as VDW dealt in cold methodical logic we are told to ignore the form book comments.

VDW said that Greenhills Joy had less of a test than First Division when evaluating the Newmarket race.

What did he mean ?

A question I am working on presently whilst struggling with the Righthand Man example and in particular the assessment of Peaty Sandy's in form or not for that race.
Posts: 1107 | Registered: February 12, 2002

Ignored post by Determined posted November 23, 2004 06:09 AM Show Post

Lee
Member
Posted November 23, 2004 08:27 AM Hide Post
Mtoto,

No, I'm not suggesting that is how VDW worked.

Why is not possible? There are many ways to isolate winners using different means of investigation, however, VDW's method did not hinge around speed figures, whether to determined class, or any other way. He said that they were a useful guide, but not the be all and end all.

Determined,

As I've stated before, you are focusing on an area that is of vital importance to the method. In order for the reader not to get too carried away with speed figures VDW was careful in how he gave his assessment.

From Racing in My System:

"Greenhills Joy won her race and First Division was second, but the latter's performance was far superior in a faster race."

From Systematic Betting:

"Both were first outings but, although Greenhills Joy won, her form upon inspection is below that of First Division. A slow race and the closing stages show hers was less of a test."

He felt the need to make clear that he was judging each performance in the closing stages by other means than what the clock said at the end of the race.
Posts: 420 | Registered: February 07, 2002

Ignored post by Lee posted November 23, 2004 08:27 AM Show Post

pkboy
Member
Posted November 23, 2004 08:36 AM Hide Post
Lee,

Class and Form most certainly appear to be at the core of CVDW's methods
Posts: 274 | Registered: August 25, 2002

Ignored post by pkboy posted November 23, 2004 08:36 AM Show Post

Seanrua
Member
Posted November 23, 2004 10:23 AM Hide Post
"
The experts suggest that a race readers comments is just one person's opinion and as VDW dealt in cold methodical logic we are told to ignore the form book comments."
: Determined.

To All,

Yes, this is the hard bit; we are told to ignore both racereader's comments and the clock " when assessing how a horse is running in the last 2f".

I've posted the five possible categories of finishing performance that can be done by / happen to a horse.

To determine the category without imput from others means to me that we must see the actual last two furlongs by being on course or by watching video recordings or Tv pictures.

Any reference to " reading the formbook" will have to be dismissed on the same grounds that ruled out race-reader's comments, ie third party information from a human source.

Perhaps life is an illusion after all; let me just ask this angel at the bedroom window. I'll have to be quick, as those pigs look like they're on a collision course......
Posts: 1574 | Registered: April 23, 2004

Ignored post by Seanrua posted November 23, 2004 10:23 AM Show Post

Lee
Member
Posted November 23, 2004 10:36 AM Hide Post
Seanrua,

Think about things logically, if a horse is noted as having 'qcknd inside the last' to make a race of it, what does this mean?

*For instance, is it now a contender for the Derby*?
Posts: 420 | Registered: February 07, 2002

That last part there says it all, it must be whats involved at the finish that counts Sean and how it panns out.I used to run round the Highland Games circut and whilst
i was capable of quickening up round the gaffs you`d think i was running with lead boots on when in against the top boys.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,

Is it really just some one's opinion though that a horse quickened.I havn't done a systematic study comparing different racereaders, but when I have compared Raceform,sperform or Racing Post comments they were basically the same.They may have worded it differently for example stayedon instread of ran on or ran on well or ran on gamely.This means the same thing doesn't it?

Was that because the top boys set a faster pace, Walter?

What I still don't get is how the vdw boys can weigh up how a horse finishes

WITHOUT
reference to the clock

OR
taking account of race-reader's comments.

I don't believe they played about with video recordings, so, if the clue be visual, it must mean that they only believe what they actually see with their own eyes.

Somehow, though, this doesn't fit, for, I got the feeling that somebody like Investor had never seen a horse in his fkn life!

Whatever he was using it wasn't trackside experience, imo.

I'm fkd if I know what they're on about, but isn't that the way they like it?

VDW must have been using some one's else opinion. He couldn't have been watching all the races before video recorders. Even VDW couldn't be in two places at once.Nowadays it's possible to watch each and evey race and form your own opinion and this will give you an edge we you get good enough at it.

quote:

Originally posted by sean rua:
Was that because the top boys set a faster pace, Walter?

What I still don't get is how the vdw boys can weigh up how a horse finishes

WITHOUT
reference to the clock

OR
taking account of race-reader's comments.

I don't believe they played about with video recordings, so, if the clue be visual, it must mean that they only believe what they actually see with their own eyes.

Somehow, though, this doesn't fit, for, I got the feeling that somebody like Investor had never seen a horse in his fkn life!

Whatever he was using it wasn't trackside experience, imo.

I'm fkd if I know what they're on about, but isn't that the way they like it?

In SIAO, VDW analysed 5 different races from 4 different meetings, and urged us to study the form of all concerned.......... most importantly, how they performed in the closing stages.
How anyone thinks that he, or they, could do that without race reader's comments beggars human comprehension?
Just another example of how something relatively simple can be made endlessly complicated by those who need to think themselves smart.
Of course he used race-reader's comments, and as he made clear, they are a basic part of the method.

quote:

The experts suggest that a race readers comments is just one person's opinion and as VDW dealt in cold methodical logic we are told to ignore the form book comments.

Which experts told us to ignore the form book comments?
I thought VDW said all the answers are in the formbook

HI
VDW said Roushayd was one paced in the N/Dancer, comment in the F/Book.

Q/F/Fame C/Vase quickening to challenge.
He did use their quotes.

Trypod

Back and fore like a ping pong ball.

Round and round like a dog chasing its tail.

Spin, spin, and more spin.

I'm a non believer, but one thing that really did it for me was when the vdw character was talking about his "exotic holidays" that he took regularly at a certain time of year.

When I checked out certain dates, it seems he was writing about his vdw methodology in races that clashed with his aforesaid holidays!

Not all the experts can be correct on this one. Either he did something or he didn't.

I'll remain on the sidelines and let others decide for themselves.

quote:

Originally posted by Maggsy1:
What did mr Pointment do in the last few furlongs?VDW said this would often give the answers.If you read the in running comments from his last two races it says Stayed on Strongly and Quickened.I don't have a problem with those comments in fact quite the reverse. There was other factors that I think were against it winning though.Unless the evaluation adds up to 95% certainty then VDW said to leave it a lone.(That doesn't mean that it has a 95% chance of winning though)This means being disciplined and selective.This is were many fall down in my view in trying to find to many bets.

From the RP race report:

Mr Pointment... was reported to have finished distressed after breaking a blood vessel.

quote:

Was that because the top boys set a faster pace, Walter?

Yes without a doubt, as stated previously i could quicken up in my class but never once in my derbys, id always meet MY Waterloo.
If you`d NOTED my comments at Thonton they would have been (LW) tracked leaders, headway entering final 50 yds, quickened away nicely, impressive!.
At Meadowbank they would have been akin to (LW) never going pace to challenge, effort 75 yds out, weakened, finished tired.
What use are the comments from the Thornton run in the context of the Meadowbank race?.
I think this was all that Lee was trying to convey, with his quote: for instance is it now a contender for the Derby, my view.

Race-reader's comments; Roushayd N.D. H/c 1988:

RP website:
headway 5f out, 3rd straight, hung right, one pace final 2f

S/L formbook:
Hdwy to go 3rd 4f out, hng rt and came wide 3f out, sn wknd.

No spin, no backward and forward or round and round, just a straightforward interpretation of the form in exactly the way VDW showed us in SIAO.
Those that couldn't understand it made up their own stories, often using ability ratings or speed figures, neither of which he mentioned in his original appraisal.
Go figure!

Must say JD

The Roushayd comments in his race before winning the Old Newton Cup
Doesnt exactly make the pulse quicken.
Considering that he his judged on that run to be coming to the boil

Thanks, Walter.

i know - not least from past discussions with various "authorities" - that there is a lot of physiological differences between horses and humans, but

this question of PACE really fascinates me! Not only am i genuinely interested in the subject, but I honestly believe it is the key to making profits from backing horses, which is the only way I make the wee bit I have.

I know you are/have been a professional runner, so I'd like to ask you a few questions:

First, a general question, which I hope applies to ALL forms of racing:

how can we best measure PACE scientifically - in your experience?

Second, what really "happens" when a runner " kicks on"?
"Pressing the button"; " turn of foot"; " finding nothing".

What do you make of this lot - from a human runner's perspective?

----

Btw, I take your point about the lack of useful relevance from the report of your first race to the second one.

quote:

hung right, one pace

JohnD,

I almost follow your point, but

isn't that " hung right, one pace"
a
race-reader's comment?

--

Personally, I see little wrong with taking heed of race-reader's comments - provided they are trustworthy.

My favourite is " Ran on well".
A great positive in my book.

Boozer,

Thank fk you are here!

hi everyone,..if vdw, did not first use ability rating speed figures.. why were they given in more detail in siao,..also he would have given more in depth notes on how to use race readers comments...if this was the main part of his method..i think??? any clues..

quote:

Originally posted by boozer:
Must say JD

The Roushayd comments in his race before winning the Old Newton Cup
Doesnt exactly make the pulse quicken.
Considering that he his judged on that run to be coming to the boil

Boozer

They don't; if you read them in the way that most people do?
VDW wasn't like most people though, and he showed us a better way to read form that paints a totally different picture.
Nothing hidden or of great complexity, just a simple and logical approach which he spelled out in some detail, but remains a mystery to those who think the answer is in only a part of it.

Seanrua

Don't know whether it is me or you, but we are definitely at cross-purposes. I will repeat He definitely, absolutely, unquestionably, categorically, DID use race-reader's comments!

grundy i take it you think that the last figure in the vdw grid is speed/class figure i always thought it was a collaterel figure