thanks John

Attention seeking?

Just trying to give VDW some credibility and take it back from the gurus who have turned it into a laughing stock. The regulars on TRF won't post on the VDW threads, they call VDWers'..MOONIES.

Are you happy about that JohnD????

The only attention my thread would get would be a plus for VDW..so I don't see where I myself even fit into it.

I can't help it if I have the balls to post CLEAR selections beforehand..you should be encouraging that..if you are all for VDW that is...maybe it's most of those posting on the 800 page thread that are the real attention seekers..making out they have some mysterious way of knowing about VDW.

It's time those VDWers who want to move forward exposed the charlattan gurus who have pimped their egos on the back of VDW for years with their invisible, unproven ..oh so successful..only they know..way of interpreting what is basically form reading.

The real damage to this forum..and the thread on TRF..is the GURUS..with their arrogant superiority.


I've no time for those that pretend..get some balls out and post some selections is my challenge to the gurus...ARE YOU ONE OF THEM JOHND?

I hope not

I could get to like you given time you know

Just occasionally, a horse will stick out like the proverbial sore thumb, and the only decision is whether the horse is really out to win.
Cloone River, 1.40 Ascot is such a horse, and looks to be here with serious intent.
Not very often are you able to get 12/1 about them, though.

HI LADS
WOW THERE IS A LOT OF VDW ON THIS SITE . CAN ANYONE RECOMEND THE BEST PARTS TO LOOK AT OR SHOULD I START AT THE BEGINING .

THANK YOU
ARKLE

Hiya Paul

Most of the stuff on here (and elsewhere) is hot air and posturing.
Save yourself weeks of labour and read only the posts by Lee over the last 3 years. You will gain a much quicker and more usable knowledge in that way.
Once you've digested it, forget the old form books and apply it to upcoming races, if you've done it properly you'll soon know; if not, go back and read it again.
All the best
Johnd

JOHND
THANK YOU FOR YOUR REPLY. CAN YOU PLEASE ADVISE IS THERE A SHOT CUT TO FIND POST'S BY LEE, OR IS THERE ANY PATICULAR THREAD THAT LEE HAS POSTED ONTO.

THANK YOU
ARKLE

Paul

I've spent an interesting few hours looking through the archived VDW thread in particular, and if you access "find", then "advanced", then select the relevant thread, and pop in a username it will throw up all that person's posts.

I disagree with JohnD that Lee's posts are the only ones worth reading, though agree that Lee's are. I think his response to Mtoto at 7.20pm on 16 December 2004, especially his reply to Mtoto's first point with which I entirely agree, should be extremely helpful to those relatively new to VDW. BUT in truth there are no real shortcuts and before you accept the proposition you should satisfy yourself that it is correct.

Sorry Paul, I should have warned you about the sheep in wolves' clothing!

Paul

Another interesting post I noticed last night, from the "80%" thread, dated 6 August 2003, included the following table:

Arowson: 9/1 -6 11%
Biotechnology: 17/6 +6.125 35%
Determined: 2/0 -2 0%
Epiglotis: 4/1 -0.5 25%
Grundy: 1/0 -1 0%
Guest: 81/20 -29.969 25%
Investor: 6/2 -2.33 33%
Johnd: 28/1 -22.5 4%
Mickeddy: 13/4 -0.687 30%
Mtoto: 4/0 -4 0%
Pipedreamer: 4/4 +4.136 100%
Swish: 1/0 -1 0%
Titus: 1/0 -1 0%

This could get interesting.

Paul

Anyone who has"spent an interesting few hours looking through the archived VDW thread" and can give you a resume of around 70,000 posts is either a genius, a charlatan, or just a bare-faced liar.
I will leave it for you to choose.

The first sounds good to me!

But in reality the large majority of those hours were spent looking at the posts of those whose reputations as folk who have put serious time and effort into researching VDW's examples are not limited to this forum, namely Guest and Lee.

JOHN D / HENSMAN
THANKS FOR THE REPLYS. I HOPE I HAVE NOT STARTED ANOTHER ARGUMENT

quote:

reputations as folk who have put serious time and effort into researching VDW's examples are not limited to this forum, namely Guest and Lee.

But Hensman...reputations are easily earned when talking abot races that have already been run??

I can make a good case for a number of winners over the last few weeks for instance..now I KNOW the winners.

surely any reputation has to be earned in real time.


all this bulling people up to be gurus of aftertiming won't help anyone..it's real time races that count...I actually agree with John D for once

the only way to learn about "form reading"..which VDW is..is to do it in real time...those examples VDW put up after the race are worthless without knowing his decision making process..BEFOREHAND.

Anyone that works on a race..will know that his view of that race will change dramatically once it has been run..as regards to what factors are relevant.

You can talk about Prominent King & co untill the cows come home..in fact ther's 800+ pages and much wasted effort imho..on this forum.

If those 800 pages had been analysing FUTURE races..boy would they worth a whole lot more.

ffs..leave those old races alone..see what actually earns you winning bets in real time..because you will need a totally different decision model to the VDW one..as all his conclusion only took place after the races had run..just backfitting..and not even consistent backfitting either.

well said ectoo dont want to hear about prominant king again in my life.its just to short.there is not enough hours in the day to go into races as the gurus do the vdw books are being put away again like a line on on a saturday this going round in circles is taking the plesure away its not for me.dont like dutching dont think ability ratings give you enough edge am prepared to go through the little owl type narrowing down but i,ll be on my own from there on in , this board has some great posts and a lot of help [up to a piont]have been lurking and reading for a while but not forward enough thinking i,m off thank you

Who is this Guessed guy?

Ectoo

The two members in whose posts I have been primarily interested over the weekend both put up numbers of selections, with considerable success, on the thread.

which thread Hensman? it's not on TRF as the thread Cormack put up for actual selections on there didn't look very good...and has not been used...all the stuff on the VDW threads on TRF are the same old chasing yer arse discussing races from 30 years ago that were brought up in the handicap book..AFTER they had won..it's oh so easy to make cases for horses after the race.

I think it's really important that you guys that are convinced VDW is the way..do pull away from this past analysis..present race analysis will benefit you more..pre and post race analysis of horses you know well is the way forward.

I'm really tying to be positive here..Les..whats the point of not posting..you seem one of the few that does want a cahnge..JohnD also seems to live more in the present than the past.

I really don't think "modelling" individual horses and expecting other horses to imitate that model in future is viable..racing and horses are to0 dynamic for that.

When I was reading teh VDW stuff all those years ago..I made models of certain types of patterns in horses..it all looked very good when I made the model..but the results of following those models in real time didn't work out.

One model I used..was just a little deviation of the VDW Roushayd method.

Basicilly I noted a horse that had won two progressive races...it was then kept off the course for 2 calendar months minimum..it then had a "prep" run to put racing edge back...then the next run was the "target" race...only if in a higher class race than either of the previous two wins. I followed this model for a number of years..had some success...DALLAS winning the cambridgeshire was one notable success.

The thinking behind this was that the horse was progressive..trainer maps a longish term target..he believes the horse can win at a higher level..he rests the horse to preserve the handicap mark..horse keeps improving at home...then preps the horse a couple of weeks before the target race...but at least 2 months after the wins. I thought it was logical at the time..I'm sure there is some logic in there..maybe I was just mapping past results to what I wanted..possible.

I developed about 10 to 15 "model" types..NH and flat...there were very few selections..over time they didn't make money..yes I had successes...but no where near the back fitted level that I thought pointed to a hopeful future.

That was during the 80's..I really thought that this type of "model" or "spot play" was the way to win..it isn't.

I tracked those models for 10 years..even now I look for them out of ingrained habit.

What I am trying to say is that there is nothing wrong with using VDW as a start point..then develop..all this being an "expert" on old races and pretending there is some special info in those examples isn't really very future thinking.

I've done my time at this game..done my share of reading "past races" from what then was a ragged collection of handicap book results pullout sections...and the longer I follow it the more I know that nothing is set in stone..certain types of win patterns..belong to individual horses...they are not produced in future enough to make money.

Anyone that thinks "pattern" horses are a way to riches is wrong..imho...race analysis ..whether based on VDW or other ways is the only real way of winning...it's just fitting the jigsaw together that is the hard part.

Those jigsaw pieces exist in the present..not 30 years ago.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: ectoo,

quote:

Originally posted by Hensman:
Ectoo

The two members in whose posts I have been primarily interested over the weekend both put up numbers of selections, with considerable success, on the thread.

Hensman

It would seem that not only are you a liar, you are also deluded.
To bracket Guest with Lee is entirely laughable.
Wasn't Guest the one with such a lock on the method that he degenerated into backing place only, before finally giving it up altogether?

The Hensman Mystery Stakes

can anyone select A winner from the 3 probables

Fulham 6/4
Guest 4/1
Investor 10/1

Boozer

You accused me of "driving everyone away" the other week..your post above is unlikely to encourage anyone to post is it?

JohnD calls a newbie a liar on his 4th post...wtf is going on here?

is it VDW ego chest thumping time or summat?



yet it's me that has driven folk away????

lmao

Ectoo

You will find selections from both Guest and Lee on the archived VDW thread, and quite a lot from Guest on the "80%" thread.