Did either of you two guys even watch the race? Anyone who thinks the horse couldn't have won, including all those in the other place who blame his a/r, the weight, the c/d, the going etc, just didn't watch the same race as me nor, apparently, the RP analyst.
Walter In my neck of the woods, even the fannys can hold their drink!
This message has been edited. Last edited by: johnd,
Originally posted by walter pigeon: You know i despair sometimes with people, Have to laugh though at the time i was asked to join an elite vdw group only a few guys seemingly. What the feck they seen in me i dont know?. Btw you would`nt believe who did the asking for them.
Walter, I was going thro' some stuff tonight and found a wallet of posts that I'd printed out.
it seems as though many of the ex vdw disciples have jumped ship,myself now reluctantly included,some of the discussion is good,and I don't think this site is going to take off,like it did in the past.
Originally posted by walter pigeon: Glad to have been of some use Imp, are you stoking the fire with them now .
I wish I could Walter, but I can't seem to let them go! I've got a boxfull of stuff to do with CVDW - I should really chuck it - it's doing me 'ed in. Anyhow your posts of
quote:
December 01, 2002,
I found interesting.
quote:
Member
Posted Sun Dec 01 2002 3:40 AM Hide Post Barney sorry to hear you are giving vdw a break on this board had a gander at your haydock results today been up all night as well, now vdw said he didnt place too much importance in his 2 rating methods & they were used as a guide only, im not sure if this can be taken as gospel though as sure when he was asked to reveal them his reply was to the effect that "people must be naive if they thought he would divulge them free gratis" please feel free to correct me if im wrong anyone, as regards the criteria for qualification i can only hazard a guess & say the class of race l.t.o the weight the horse carried & the price therin are fundemental in your findings but then again you said form is not important could you help please. Posts: 2837 | Registered: August 27, 2002
Ignored post by walter pigeon posted Sun Dec 01 2002 3:40 AM Show Post
walter pigeon Member
Posted Sun Dec 01 2002 4:35 AM Hide Post Getting back to a winner in a race i couldn`t help but notice that nearly all the horses mentioned by barney today had shown at one time or another in their past that they could win in a higher class with more weight in relation to an earlier victory, not always on the same run however everything is relative remember, dont know if this is significant or not but it`s an area worth investigation, if you take vdw`s comments on board re-how horses are placed after a win particularly in handicaps , many trainers push them up in distance, weight, class, to hide their true potential he refers to these as negative influences so if a horse was to win or run well when the odds were against them then surely they must have something about them, please forgive me only thinking out loud & thought this might have something to do with a horse being a winner in a race last 2 fulongs and all that & showing the right attitude & ability in a comparable class or better than todays, once again please feel free to put me right .
Imp i have an awful lot of old posts printed out from this forum as well. Here is a nice one i found from Arrowson that sent me thinking back in 03, go to 1st March 2003 post time is either 10.13 or 11.13am on the Archived Thread the item is headed A question of weights. If using this method of handicapping id stick to exposed races with the older horses. If anyone knows how to bring it here then it may be of use to some.
Originally posted by Pipedreamer: it seems as though many of the ex vdw disciples have jumped ship,myself now reluctantly included,some of the discussion is good,and I don't think this site is going to take off,like it did in the past.
PD
Can't say that I blame you, given that our glorious leader seems to have disappeared completely. Myself, I'll soldier on to the bitter end. The TRF thread is doing ok at the moment, but with sworn enemies getting into bed together, it is surely only a matter of time before there are casualties. Like this thread though, it comprises 1% common sense and 99% nonsense. Particularly loved the one about Brashee being a form horse and the horse, Cossack Guard, that was half a length behind him in their last race being out of form????? The mind boggles, particularly when there is a simple and logical explanation as to why VDW selected B, using nothing that VDW didn't tell us directly, and that ties in exactly with the form of both races. Maybe it's just me that's barmy?
arowson Member Posted Sat Mar 01 2003 11:13 AM Hide Post A question of weights.
The weights in handicaps are determined by the Official Ratings.
In Mini Sensations last race the average OR was 131, MS's OR was 136 and his allotted weight was 11-3.
In this race the average OR is 139, MS's OR is now 148 and his allotted weight is 11-5.
This looks as though he is put up 2lbs.
If he was running in this race off his previous OR he would be carrying 10-7, so that is relatively 12lbs more.
The average OR of this race is 139 while the last was 131 so the field is (in the eyes of the hanidicapper) relatively 8lbs better. Another 8lbs to overcome, so now 20lbs worse off than in his last race.
MS is not a bet for me.
By various methods sketchily related to VDW's methodology I am interested in the following:-
Haydock 1.10 Iris's Gift Haydock 1.40 Goguenard Newbury 1.50 Got One Too Kelso 2.55 Vol Solitaire Newbury 3.00 Keltic Bard/Bernardon Doncaster 3.15 Springfield Scally Haydock 3.20 Quazar
Don't know why I should do anything to encourage you, and I certainly wouldn't be posting on your attention seeking 'new thread' but, as it's VDW, I would suggest that Ezima is much the likeliest winner, without actually being a bet.
