Away tomorrow, but 2 early ones for York:
In the first on Tuesday, Mull Of Dubai, and Strategic Mount in the Ebor.
Luck to all.

quote:

Originally posted by johnd:

quote:

Originally posted by walter pigeon:
Oh dear,
The horse never seemed to be travelling there i should`ve checked the going as it looked a bit loose on top.

Walter
I didn't watch the race, but apparently there was a heavy storm before the race, and the official going was changed to g/s immediately after it.
You would also have to wonder why a horse that didn't get home over a fast ground, sharp 8f, was running over a 8f course with a stiffer finish, and on softer ground?

Im not sure she did`nt get home over Goodwood`s 8F
she was booted up in class that day as per opposition and was`nt expected, so she did well to finish where she did.
It would appear that this course thing needs closer looking at then JD.

BATH
RND COURSE = QUITE STIFF
TURNS = EASY
RUN-IN = 4F UPHIL AND BENDING until FINISH
SUITS = STRONG GALLOPING TYPES

GOODWOOD
RND COURSE = UNDULATING
TURNS = SHARP
RUN-IN = 4F DOWNHILL until about 1f OUT then RISES TO THE FINISH
SUITS = HANDY TYPES

Delving deeper however finds Basaata equiting herself well enough in two Newbury runs one of which was over 10F.

NEWBURY
TURNS = EASY
RUN-IN = 5F SLIGHTLY UNDULATING THROUGHOUT
SUITS = LONG STRIDING GALLOPING TYPES with STAMINA

They probably need to drop her back a furlong and look for a listed opportunity on decent ground.

off on holidays today,hopefully CESARE might pay for a bit of it.

Was`nt a great ride on Cesare Pipedreamer thought Dettori should have kicked earlier on the Godolphin horse as well.
Ryan Moore continues to make the least mistakes of the recognised jock`s in my view.
Enjoy the hols .

Cesare, though 2nd, wasn't really 'at the races' yesterday, a point confirmed in a post-race interview when connections let slip that Echelon was the one they wanted to win.
Having already bagged a gp2 the horse was rested for 6 weeks and came back with the gp1 QE11 as his target. He will be a fitter horse then.
Echelon, although coming back from a longer break, conversely has had this race as her target all season, (a point again verified by connections in yesterday morning's RP), having never previously won above gp3 .
Make of that what you will but, for much the same reasons, I wouldn't have backed the odds-on Balthazaars Gift with wooden money yesterday.
VDW was a lot smarter than many give him credit for.

Further to the above - although the remarks are credited to the trainer of the winner, they are obviously Luca Cumani's about Balthazaar's Gift.

My horse saw too much daylight and the winner stole a march. It was a good prep race for the Betfred Sprint Cup - [trainer]

The 2nd part of the statement explains why this horse was running in a small field 15k handicap. Nobody, to my knowledge, has ever written about this aspect of racing, except VDW.

JD if the principals stand their ground in the Betfred Sprint Balthazaars gift should be a decent price.
Race conditions on the day may bring one or two of them closer together.

Basaata goes in the 2.05 at Sandown if were on the right lines then today must surely be a training day.

I think we can say now that she will stay a mile Sandown is stiff enough its also right handed as is Goodwood but shes run ok at Newbury L/H. She needs going good/good to firm.
Ran a good race there carried widest into the straight jockey was`nt too hard on her stayed on into 3rd btn approx one and a half lengths 16/1.

Ive been trawling through the old posts again on the VDW Archived Thread came across a couple of quotes from much larger posts that some may find of interest.
..............................................
(1) VDW took a completely different view of Class which related to the prizemoney on offer and prizemoney already won.
..............................................
(2) If the Derby winner failed to beat the winner of a Listed Race having led at the furlong marker and passed soon after, would you consider it in form for its next engagement in the King George at Ascot?.
..............................................

took me ages to find these gems any thoughts on quotes from respected members Lee & Guest most welcome.

quote:

Originally posted by walter pigeon:
Ive been trawling through the old posts again on the VDW Archived Thread came across a couple of quotes from much larger posts that some may find of interest.
..............................................
(1) VDW took a completely different view of Class which related to the prizemoney on offer and prizemoney already won.
..............................................
(2) If the Derby winner failed to beat the winner of a Listed Race having led at the furlong marker and passed soon after, would you consider it in form for its next engagement in the King George at Ascot?.
..............................................

took me ages to find these gems any thoughts on quotes from respected members Lee & Guest most welcome.

Walter

There is, I believe, a very simple logic behind just about everything VDW wrote, and it as well for anyone trying to fathom his approach to bear that in mind, at all times.
He undoubtedly used prizemoney as a measure of class as he demonstrated frequently, and it remains true to this day that the better prizes attract better horses, and at all levels.
However, his ability ratings are just ratings, and as such, should only be seen as a guide, often a very good guide, but never enough to back a horse on the strength of that rating alone.
In the 'Golden Years' (letter 36) he said:

"I illustrated how class fitted into my calculations and showed a way to find virtual racing certainties"

which was of course, a reference to the Diamond Edge example, a horse which was miles clear on ability ratings.

But, even in that first article where he introduced abilty ratings, he did go on to say;

"The method of rating can be applied to all racing, but I must again stress that ratings are a guide, and should only be used in conjuction with other factors."


The prizemoney on offer is also a major factor, although in pattern races it sometimes secondary to future stud value, it is an essential consideration when evaluating any race and, as he showed with Roushayd, Desert Orchid, etc, often the determining factor on whether to bet or not.
As he pointed out on a number of occasions, class is paramount, and prizemoney is still a very simple and worthwhile way to rate it.


I couldn't comment on the Guest quote without the wider context of the complete posting but, even though lto form is of great significance, I am certain that he and his clan were barking up the wrong tree in their approach to it.

From a VDW perspective there are 2 good bets to be made today at the St Ledger meeting the first of which is in the principle race itself.

However it requires a book to made which should include the two that head the market and should ensure a very reasonable profit.

The second is in the 5.30; The Illies. The class/form horse with everything in its favour.

Short prices on the day but anyone who thinks they can back 20/1 winners every day are living in dreamland!

Great to see you posting here again Lee.

My own bet today is on Lucarno to place.I was in Roscommon when Honolulu made his debut,drifted in the betting but ran a nice race,and I put him in the horse tracker.I don't think that his form is as good as Lucarnos who is a proven consistent group 2 performer.Honolulu is relatively unexposed,and can I suppose improve enough,but I will stick with the place bet on Lucarno.

I am off to a wedding shortly and will probably be bellotto later on,hopefully Lucarno will pay for the drinks.

Have a good day everyone.

Basaata runs at Goodwood this afternoon does`nt look to be placed to best adavantage does she?.
Im glad he`s put her in here though as there should be a good pace on, hopefully more use will be made of the filly today in this higher class that should stretch her out nicely.
After this if the trainer has serious intentions he should be searching for an opening somewhere.
She`s still only rated 100 so he does have options of which way to go.
If you look back to her Lingfield defeat of Barshiba over 7f on the All weather it`s interesting to see how that one has been campaigned since.
Well done with the winners guys.

Basaata ran well the jockey had to work her this time, in the class, but that was expected.
She wants to go with the pace this filly but they have been dropping her out since her maiden win.

well done Lee,great selections there,I just had the place bet on Lucarno,so it paid for the hangover at least.

Nice ones, Lee.
In the Ayr Gold Cup, Knot In Wood looks a clear selection, with Fullandby to chase him home.
Confidential Lady also looks the business in the 4.40.

Basaata is down to run at Ascot on the 29th of September,this could be the race for her.

Ive had a better look at Saturdays race this afternoon and if it does`nt cut up it could prove to be a competitive affair for Basaata.
This would really play into our hands as far as any price was concerned as she has a great chance in the race.
She has been held up on recent runs and one can only surmise that they were helping her to settle as this is not the way to go with her.
Im left hoping on two fronts at the moment (1)that she gets her ground good/good to firm on the day & (2) that they ride her up with the pace we may see a different filly if they do.

The ground on the round course at Ascot has changed from good to soft to good over the last 24 hrs and good to firm on the straight course.
If im not mistaken Basaata`s race will take place on the round mile.