Dabbers Ridge:

First run of season: 723
2nd run of season: 21
3rd run of season: 11

No horse officially rated in 3 figures has won the Victoria Cup in the last 20 years.

Hope this helps

Good luck, whatever you back

EMMPAT looks a likely bet in the 2.00 Haydock

Ectoo,
Welcome back to the forum as chance would have it ive been looking for one of you guys with rsb to show up on here for the last wee while.
Id like to ask what the speed par figure`s are using topspeed of the racing post for these classes of flat racing over the last 5 yrs.
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Class 1
Class 2
Class 3
Class 4
Class 5
Class 6
Class 7

Hello Walter

RSB wouldn't give that info mate. You also have another problem in that topspeed changed how they calculated figures a while ago..I might be wrong but may have also changed the scale they work on as well.

The easiest option for you would be to do it manually using RP database..a bit of a bugger but easy enough to do.

It may be easy for others ectoo but not myself im afraid i would`nt know where to begin.
If i was to get hold of the topspeed par`s concerning the classes previously mentioned though im sure i could make another potential winning method from it.

easy enough to do Walter..if I am assuming correctly what you actually want..should take about 4 or 5 hours.

go back through last seasons form and note about 50 winners in each class..at random..then take a median figure of the top 20 in each class...go back another season if you can't find enough of one class.

you will then have a "par" speedfigure for each class level.

Ive seen me studying certain lines of investigation for hours on end ectoo but im a simple person and what you are suggesting is beyond me im afraid.

quote:

Originally posted by ectoo:
Dabbers Ridge:

First run of season: 723
2nd run of season: 21
3rd run of season: 11

No horse officially rated in 3 figures has won the Victoria Cup in the last 20 years.

Hope this helps

Good luck, whatever you back

Ectoo

2 things your 'stats' failed to notice:

1/ Dabbers Ridge had never contested anything near as valuable as this on his first run of the season previously.

2/ Dabbers Ridge had never run in a Victoria Cup before, so your 2nd stat was also meaningless.

As it was, he failed to stay on ground that was considerably softer than that he was declared on, as his previous c/d form clearly indicated he would.
That he was 'up' for this race, and well capable of winning it, I have no doubt at all, but then VDW is based on much more than the guesswork of your 'stats' approach.
He will be back,(As was Firenze, noted last week)

quote:

1/ Dabbers Ridge had never contested anything near as valuable as this on his first run of the season previously.

Which really made it even less likely he would win as he didn't previously win easier races FTO due to fitness levels. I would imagine the trainer has little choice but to put the horse in big races now due to his high rating, so the fact that he contested a big race FTO wouldn't be that significant if that is how you read his placing of the horse.

quote:

2/ Dabbers Ridge had never run in a Victoria Cup before, so your 2nd stat was also meaningless.

Many other horses with similar and better ability have tried to win this race and failed. You seem to have not understood the relevance, I'm sorry I should have made it clearer. Basically, it's a race where the lighter weighted horses have an edge, top weighted horses will usually be those in the Listed/handicap twilight zone..too high in weights to win handicaps but not yet ready for listed/group races.

I only posted to try and save you money so I'm not sure why you have responded in such a spikey way. I'm sorry that you seem to have lost money on the horse and may be taking it out on me. I hope this is not the case.

You know, these "meaningless" stats can sometimes help out even for someone as greatly knowledgeable as yourself, keep an open mind Johnd, a closed one can retard future learning.

Not sure what you meant about Firenze, did he run in the Victoria Cup?

Good luck with whatever you bet.

All the best

EC

I've been looking at these VDW ideas over the past couple of months and have developed a way of implementing some of the basics, after applying some logic and up to date thinking, with my own ideas of analysis and will be happy to post selections pre-race over the coming months.

Since the start of the flat proper I've had some success with these so hopefully I can contribute in a positive way to this board.

Hope you are all keeping well and winning.

Finsceal Beo a racing certainty today?a living legend anyway

FB would win 9/10 times the race was run Pipedreamer, so 1.45 is value indeed.

quote:

As it was, he failed to stay on ground that was considerably softer than that he was declared on, as his previous c/d form clearly indicated he would.

This has confused me JohnD, can you please help me out because I have missed something? it's probably with being a little inexperienced but may be you can help anyway.

Dabbers Ridge won at Chester last year by an easy 5 lengths on Good/Soft ground. The race time was 4.33 seconds below RP standard which backs up the official going description. He also won at York on Soft ground by 2 lengths, the time was 6.23 seconds slower than the RP standard.

Now yesterday the race was run in a time 2.55 seconds slower than the RP standard. Turftrax gave the ground in the straight as Good at lunchtime, so by mid afternoon Good/Soft would have been about right. Topspeed called it G/S in their analysis, the official going was also Good/Soft.

So are you saying the ground was too fast for Dabbers Ridge yesterday? As it looks to my eye that he can win on any going and has in fact won in much deeper ground than he encountered yesterday.

There is also a trainer quote on the RP site:

quote:

I thought it might be a bit quick but the new track isn't unfriendly to soft ground horses.

I hope you can help me out here..it just looked to me that DR just maybe needed the race yesterday which is probably why he was beaten 21 lengths.. but you clearly think the ground was the reason..can you explain why the going may have been a problem?

Probably all of you can see my error in reading the form here but I'm no expert in these matters and may well be making a fatal error in my reading of it.

thanks in advance.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: ectoo,

today was the 1/10 when she didn't win Pipedreamer, shame because connections have been brave shoving her out so quickly

Ectoo

"A little inexperienced" I could forgive; total ignorance, never!
Go away, you sad little twat, and try score your pathetic ego points off someone who gives a f***!

any need for a response like that John? tut tut, how rude.

you have an attitude problem that you really could do with addressing I think.

I asked for an explanation about something you said, nothing more.

As for ego, is it pot kettle and black I wonder?

Have a nice day luv anyway

The width of a well smoked cigar was all that was in it at the end,but that's the way it goes sometimes.

asked a little too much of her Pipedreamer, maybe with another few days break that cigar width may have gone the other way.

First selection runs in the 7.00 at Windsor, NEW SEEKER

I would appreciate any comments before the race, good or bad.

If the going gets worse than Good/Soft it would be a no bet.

pd

Finsceal Beo ran to the same level this week as last. She simply got outstayed on the rain softened ground.
If the Irish Guineas is run on anything like fast ground next week, she should win just as easily as at Newmarket; 3 runs in 2 weeks or not.
If you are to understand VDW properly, you must acquaint yourself with this aspect.