Walter

What i am not so sure about is vdw`s dismissal of Merce Cunningham who had also marked his card lto the reason given there were higher class horses in the field amongst a few others.
He also dismissed Merce C. (as a bet) on grounds of distance.

Was the siao article not about consistency John
No!
At a later date VDW wrote of SIAO: "The whole concept was explained, piece by piece."
From memory, what Lee actually said what that the Roushayd example was a further check to embrace horses not highlighted by consistency.

Talking of Lee do you remember that Double Vodka he put up a few years back would you say this fitted with GR of lincs take on things?.
I cannot really speak for either Lee or G.R., though Double Vodka certainly fitted the Roushayd scenario.

If I recall correctly Lee said about Double Vodka,
"D.V.in more traditional VDW style,a horse that was without a winning class rating"

What Lee said on this subject can be found by going to date 27th May 2004 post time 8.19am.
That`s on the archived vdw thread he also makes another great post in reply to Walter & JIB at 1.54pm the same day.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,

Should Artadi have been made favourite in the race that Altilhar won at Ascot yesterday?.

Boozer,

If you or anyone else has emailed me on the address I gave, I don't think it has gotten through as I've had nothing in my inbox since Friday.

In the meantime I can be reached at:

johngringo@oi.com.br

quote:

Originally posted by walter pigeon:
Should Artadi have been made favourite in the race that Altilhar won at Ascot yesterday?.

Certainly, any VDW'er worth his salt wouldn't have had Artadi as favourite.
As I have said for a long time, it is a much simpler, quicker, and more fruitful way of solving the puzzle set by VDW, to study the results of the better contemporary races rather than ploughing through ancient form books.
It is very rare that a Saturday passes without a decent priced winner being highlighted, even if only after the race, and this Saturday was no exception with 3 such horses, the same number as the previous Saturday.
When regularly evaluated in this manner, and with the form and video replays instantly accessible, the potential of the method quickly becomes more apparent, and the above results, at a quiet time of the racing year, lend credence to the claims of such as G.R. of Lincs.
Any member who hasn't approached the subject in this manner, I urge you to try it, you may be pleasantly surprised.

A good race at Nottingham today,anyone want a discussion,see can we get the winner

Geordieland for me,just hope it keeps drifting and i can get over 3/1

Pd

Dangerous ground for me, a poor value listed race containing genuine gp1/gp2 horses who will obviously have loftier targets as the season wears on, so no great incentive to have the horses primed for this race.
Having said that, and considering one or two other aspects, I would be highly surprised if one of the first two in the betting didn't win.

Good luck Rab, I hope you get your price, though I suspect The Last Drop's stable may be keen to win a race named after their former inmate.
The percentage bet would probably be Geordieland to win, with a saver f/c TLD for safety.

I have to agree it looks between the first two in the market,there may be an opportunity for a book,the Hills stable like this race,and the last drop also won first time out last year.

At those prices - not much chance of a Book -

You are staking £2.70 for a £1.00 return

tc

well done richard hills,he's at it again

I would think Dunlop is surprised at that one winning, T/J 0/33 between them

PD,
Your post was noted earlier this morning but a family day out prevented any worthwhile response.
I work from a list of horses in the main but there were`nt any at the races this afternoon.
Altilhar was the latest horse to run from Walters Notebook.
There will be others over the sticks before the codes change however the close up 3rd from the same race at Cheltenham was noted also.

Walter

The close up 3rd, Laustra Bad, is entered in the Red Square novices Final at Haydock on Saturday.
Also has an entry in a small race at Towcester on Sunday, be interesting to see which he goes for.

The trainer has decided to pass on both engagements so Laustra Bad will race elsewhere.
Im glad he has chosen this route as we were`nt sure about the Haydock race for him & if he`d gone to Towcester the prospective odds would have prohibited any involvement.
A race to the equivalent value of Haydock should be within the grasp of this horse but they will need to be careful how they go about the placing.

Having a look at the 320K:

I rate the class of this race as 91.

I have rated all the runners, in hcp order:

Futun is 7lbs above his lwm. I rate his last winning run as his best form but that only rates 85, so on the face of it he is out classed. As a 4yo he will improve on that 85 this season but this is his first run for months and the stable have been v quiet. Not this time.

Impeller looks to be at the wrong distance on the wrong going. Nice Nad Al Sheba form but one can hardly see todays conditions as hand picked. No

Luberon looks out of form and whose last winning performance only rates 81. No doubt he too is better than that but he needs to give me proof first. No

All The Good rates a 91 on his lwr. As an improving 4yo that puts him bang in there class-wise. But it is unlikely that he can run to his full ability at this distance, so potentially I see a run today that will be overshadowed in the near future, which in turn indicates to me that either the stable are supremely confident of a wonder horse or this is just part of his preparation. I will go for the latter as it is the more mundane and rule him out.

Tadabul's UK record has a weak looking 90 rating from last August and a recent 95 from Dubai. Both his flat marks are now on 95 but he couldn't win a C3 £7k 10f event at this track off this mark and looks considerably dodgy off this mark on the sand. He looks a fav to oppose.

Royal Jet's last winning run rates at 96 in a fast time. He's fit and improving. Yes.

Kings Quay is obviously being readied but there is no sign of his yet having the class to win this. No.

Active Asset is a similar set up to Kings Quay.

Quince has two 85s for his last two runs but would need to improve to win this.

Of the others I can find no demonstration of anything like this class.

Royal Jet win and place.

John

Good to see some discussion of an actual race on here, though I can't agree with your findings:

"
Tadabul's UK record has a weak looking 90 rating from last August and a recent 95 from Dubai. Both his flat marks are now on 95 but he couldn't win a C3 £7k 10f event at this track off this mark and looks considerably dodgy off this mark on the sand. He looks a fav to oppose."

The c3 7k event that Tabadul couldn't win, he was beaten by 1 horse, Fairmile, who rec'd 9lbs and went on to be a 105 rated horse. Tabadul had also previously won a similar 7k race over the same c/d by 5l.
In his next race, a 28k handicap, he was btn half a length by Crosspeace, who in turn went on to run a close 2nd in two gp3's.
His subsequent runs produced an unlucky 4th, (Btn 1.5l when badly hampered at the same stage he'd made his challenge at in his previous 2 runs); a 9.5l defeat on unsuitable ground, and finally a comfortable win in a 33k handicap, albeit slightly overvalued.
Obviously fit, still improving, and the c/f horse in this race. However, there is a clear doubt about his capability,(not his class), which precludes a bet, but certainly not one to take on lightly.

3 on trainer stats

3.20 kemp Tabadul 33%
4.00 leop Admiralofthefleet 28%
4.55 kemp Gower 26%-bit worried of penny post 36% and rpr support