How do you learn how VDW looked at form WITHOUT reading the old form books? How do you know he considered many of the horses where running on the wrong course how would you know Forgive and Forget had NEVER run at Kempton. All through the examples are horse being passed over because they were running on the wrong course.

JohnD,

Sorry, but I would have thought the above was more than enough to answer your question. As it's not, I think your conlusion is utter rubbish. Without the form books you wouldn't even know the horses VDW had to choose between in most cases. Think it was you that said the three races VDW went into in detail were the most useful examples. Isn't that because you could see the whole picture?
Be Lucky

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Mtoto,

Light Relief pt2

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Old post Today at 10:25 PM Email pro Reply with quote
AlanB
i am more than aware of that fact,Then why is it that many seem to want to back horses that fall outside of these perameters,Why not stick to what vdw gave us instead of messing about with the lower classes like the race you gave tysou as a "good prospect".There was only one horse worthy of support from a vdw perpective today and that was in the Tolworth.And with the exclusion of iktitaf and to give a quote from vdw "anybody not selecting this horse today should be asking serious questions of themselves".I will also say before anybody jumps on my back for aftertiming that there is no back fitting,The class and form is evident.If you want to wait 3 months for a 12/1 shot that is your perogative.But moving outside the perameters which you did today with tysou will put the odds against you.I am fully aware of the profile and also that of Tikram but no go sirrey.There was also a horse today that had all the ticks in the right boxes,Namely Refinement.I was asked to give comment by a friend of mine,Although this horse was a "good Thing" today,It was in the 5th lowest penalty valued race so it was left.TEMPEREMENT dear man.


i would like to ask you a personal question if i may,Did you have any wagers over the christmas period.it matters not if you haven't mentioned them on here,I'm just interested as to wether you saw fit to play over the holiday and if so how many times.

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Old post Today at 10:35 PM Reply with quote
Q: What is better than backing horses?
A: Reading the results after having a drink and deciding which ones were good things!

PS:

Pro,

Would you also like to measure Alan's inside leg?

quote:

Originally posted by Mtoto:
How do you learn how VDW looked at form WITHOUT reading the old form books? How do you know he considered many of the horses where running on the wrong course how would you know Forgive and Forget had NEVER run at Kempton. All through the examples are horse being passed over because they were running on the wrong course.
Be Lucky

How do we know how VDW looked at form? Again the answer is simple,..........by reading, and believing, what he wrote, rather than making your own erroneous conclusions as so many have!
The same process also gives the answer to Roushayd without the crutch of speed figures, though it is unlikely to be found by those who don't, or partially, believe him, and likewise would show that Kempton wasn't the track for F'n'F without him ever having to have run there.
It is a process of first reading, then believing, and then eventually understanding what he wrote, in my view a much surer and safer approach than drawing random conclusions from old form books.
As others have shown, you can chronicle and dissect his selections till the cows come home, but until you "read and understand what was there", believe it, and then, and only then, apply it to his selections, you will always be putting the cart before the horse, so to speak.

quote:

"read and understand what was there",

JohnD,

How exactly do you do that without a detailed investigation? How can you know what the form is of the selection by just having the name? With Baronet you just accept the horse has the form because VDW says so. When the form is looked at the first thing that jumps out at you is Petronisi has beaten B the last three times they meet. Ok you assume the course is right for B, but is the course right for P? Oh dear, P also likes stiff courses, big fields, and has won over the distance? Bugger me, P is still weighted to beat B, what did VDW do next? Apart form looking at his ratings he would have gone back over the form of both runners. How would he do that as only the last three runs are shown in the racing papers. I can see nothing in those last three runs that says B can beat P maybe you can as you have super natural powers. Us mere mortals have to do the same as VDW, and look at the form book. That is unless you take the stance P should have won his last race in a better manner and is out of form. I don't think that is the answer as he held his form with B, if one is out of form logic says they both should have done better, and they BOTH are out of form

John get real, how can anyone understand what has been written WITHOUT using the form books?

Be Lucky

Did VDW at any stage - tell readers to look at the form books ??

tc

Mtoto

John get real, how can anyone understand what has been written WITHOUT using the form books?

In exactly the same way as I illustrated with capability.
In one short post, I gave a direct answer, and a clear definition,(Which you agreed with), to a single part of the formula that has been discussed and dissected on here ad nauseum, without one single definitive answer in 5 years, from scores of people who have spent countless hours taking the same approach you have.
Form books are fine if you know what you are looking for, but unless or until one believes implicitly in what he said, any inference will be tainted by opinion, which in turn leads to forming one's own version of the answers.
You pays your money, and you makes your choice.

I suggest they should instead determine if there is a horse with all the attributes of a winner. Having done this, evaluate its capabilities of doing so in the present situation.

JohnD,

Where would you suggest anyone would look to find out if the horse had the capabilities in the present conditions? Are you saying this can always be found in the racing papers, is it always shown in the last three runs? Where do you look to find a horses ability in any given situation?

I ask again what does VDW saying a horses name show you? If you want to find out why he thought it was a good thing (Baronet, etc.) Where did you look to find out why he thought it, or do you just take his word for it? If you did how would you find another one, wait for him to tell you? No, you go through the race and find out why he thought it.

You say form books are fine if you know what your looking for. How do you know what you are looking for if you don't first find out what VDW was looking for? Not all of us were born with the strange power of knowing all about a horse by just reading it's name, mores the pity. Until then I will have to stick to the methods other mere mortals have to use. I do find it comforting though that VDW swore by the form book he thought it was full of interesting facts. He even though it had his/our blood group in it.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

"I ask again what does VDW saying a horses name show you? If you want to find out why he thought it was a good thing (Baronet, etc.) Where did you look to find out why he thought it, or do you just take his word for it? If you did how would you find another one, wait for him to tell you? No, you go through the race and find out why he thought it."

On the contrary, you take his word for it, find out why he thought it, and then go through the race. The only way, in my view, to arrive at his conclusion, rather than one's own.

JohnD

I know its the pantomime season, but this is getting ridiculous.

How do you find out why he thought it? This can't be done by just reading the literature.

How do you go through the race? Where do you look to find out who and what was in the race? Gardening World, or perhaps the Dandy, or even the Beano!

Come back Barney/ Investor, at least you didn't pretend to be intelligent.

You need more than luck.

Mtoto

It can be done, in exactly the way set out, but first you need to shed all the old prejudices and dogma built up by years of seeing it your own way.
One doesn't need to be intelligent either, it isn't an intellectual exercise, though many kid themselves that it is. It is simply a matter of trusting what he wrote, and proceeding from that point.
Intelllect, (and ego),will cause one to formulate one's own method, whereas simple acceptance of his word will lead to the truth. A truth which, despite all your silly skits and defending of your status quo, you have failed to make the slighest hole in.
I will leave you to carry on exactly as you have, hopefully some less entrenched may begin to look at VDW differently.
You paysyour money and you makes your choice.

For now I say to you, "Don't accept a word I have written, prove it first for yourself, then and only then will you have started along that narrow road to your goal through the process of acquiring that first indispen-sable asset... TEMPERAMENT."
CVanderWheil.

JohnD,

Sorry to say VDW himself doesn't agree with you. I'm also sure if you asked him HOW do I prove what has been said he would say look in the form book!!!!!!!!!!

Be Lucky

excellent reading guys its like reading a well known Noval of successful betting!
and i`m still intriged on the outcome of the long term success

I just luv the banter that go`s on this end, and respect fellow members for keeping the vdw page going!

Tony L.

Finally!

Phar Out Phavourite 200L is down in prizemoney and course grade and after jumping right lto on a L/H track is being put on a R/H course. Is well clear on the ratings. Another faller

Westmeath Flyer 330L is way ahead of his rivals, if he loses this theres going to be a stewards enquiry! You can still get odds against. 2nd

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

Relief at last JIB is the voice of reason in a sea of babbling fools(actually only 2 fools me & u know who)
all the best
Larry
btw how u finding Superform JIB

why have i been let in under my old user name i was getting to like LarryD

Larry,

I like the trainer and jockey stats. I would need to know a lot more about the ratings to pass judgement on them though as they dont appear to be tailored to the ORs.

All sorts of old reprobates have been let back in Larry.

Welcome To Unos 320C w13/8 2.9 taken last night on BF.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

i have Galero strictly on owner/trainer/jockey stats BUT they are better with hurdlers also last season Mr Macauley was one of mine to watch think i'll leave the race alone
best of luck JIB
Larry

G Lee looks to have a very strong book of rides at Catterick

tc