Beacon Light`s form figures were 112 for his last 3 races but he had no chance in the Erin at Evs fav according to vdw.
It makes you wonder why the trainer bothered to take him over to the Emerald Isle seeing as he wiz such an empty box?.
After all he was top on ability so the trainer had a track-record of placing the horse to advantage at least.

A doobts he wiz "in the bag" that day.

JIB,

I may have this wrong but I do think there is more to the consistency factor than just statistics. A horse has to have some mental strength to consistently run well even if the conditions are not always in it's favour. Come the end of the day who would you rather risk your money on, a horse that always tries it's best or an in and out performer? You like to use statistics based on the performances of others, sires, dams and other close relatives fair enough. I prefer to use the stats of the individual horse and in doing this I much prefer to go with a GOOD consistent horse. The fact that it shows these horses win a fair % of races is a bonus, a reason to go along with the horse but only when said horse has proven ability. The fact that the first 2 in the betting forecast win 50% (approx) of their races isn't a stat I would take much/any notice of as it doesn't relate to a given horse. The fact there are other methods whether explained by VDW or not doesn't change the fact that he had to start somewhere and THIS is a good method. One like you I ignored for many years sadly to my cost.

TC/Walter

TC,

You ask what purpose did VDW's ratings serve. I think they where his orginal ability ratings. Far more accurate than the a/rating later introduce and he used them as shown in SIAO. The important gauge to judge what the other elements said. The other elements being consistentcy and forecast they judged the class of a horse and put value to the form. I think the big stumbling block using the a/rating later introduced is there is no way it can give this. A horse wins a couple of races for good prize money and there is no guide to the strength of the competition. Not all races with good prize money are good races.

Walter

As you say Beacon Light was the best on ability IF VDW did use that rating but did he? Why would Turnell as you say a good trainer take the horse to Ireland. I think he had just run the race of his life so why not. The only negative I can see is he had a hard race last time out. He was trying to give weight to a good horse ( if the race had been a handicap the weights would have been reversed) on the wrong course on the wrong going. All the commercial ratings I would have thought would show BL in with a good chance. VDW didn't use these ratings or if he did he adapted them to show what HE thought was important.

Be Lucky

Good Old Mtoto.
All those form books, for all those years, and still, gut feeling apart, has no idea why consistency is important! Tolstoy must be turning in his grave!
It is, as VDW made clear on many occasions, a cornerstone of the method.It is not essential for a horse to be amongst the 3 most consistent, as he showed with Roushayd and others; it is, however, a fundament of the method as a whole, and those that ignore it, or take it lightly, are putting the odds against themselves from the very beginning.

Perhaps the Erin would be better described as a Red Erin
After all it was the only race of the day "that was on" due to other meetings being abandoned
To me it looks like a very poor attempt at back fitting ,as VDW's reasoning behind the selection looks extremely thin to say the least
especially the dumping of Beacon light

Happy New Year All

quote:

Good Old Mtoto.
All those form books, for all those years, and still, gut feeling apart, has no idea why consistency is important! Tolstoy must be turning in his grave

Mtoto has forgotten more than you know about horse racing JohnD.

Apart from Investor..you must be the internet's biggest dream merchant.

Your last few contributions on this thread sum up VDWers like yourself to a tee..not a clue about backing horses but full of verbal diarrhea.

Keep dreaming luv.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: ectoo,

Boozer,

I find your reasoning slightly strange. The big race of the day has a false short priced favourite based on your own ratings. Against this you have a horse that is proven on the course, has good form in the class of this race, and is well placed on your ratings. Even after just a quick look it can be seen that the horse has had it's prep race and hasn't been disgraced. It is a good to fair price and is in the area where a good % of the winners come from. Remember it wasn't VDW that said ANYTHING was out of form the ratings show BL's at his best wasn't good enough. What more do you want?

Have a prosperous and happy new year one and all

Be Lucky

Mtoto
What better way of getting rid of BC other than by some own ratings (which arent disclosed)
You said yourself that BC was probably top on other ratings in fact he was 8lbs clear on one set according to some.
in this whole case ratings ARE the be all and end all.
And considering that ratings are only a guide VDW's must be brilliant as they are the only ones that ditch Beacon Light.
Not only that but he has 2 sets of ratings or should that be 2 methods of rating?? that throw out BC

not a standout bet you said
I agree
so if this is a "good betting propositon" according to VDW
Temperement has conveniently taken a back seat

BD at the first! I'm off to see a witchdoctor!

JiB:
If you fasten a killer bee to a horses tail how many pounds up does it's OR leap?

Boozer,

Think you will find I said he wasn't an outstanding bet using those (recent) form lines. You ask what better way of getting rid of BL. Some think a better way is to make him out of form using criteria that doesn't make the selection out of form in this same race. Using his ratings gives him the problem, can the same method be used in the next examples and examples that came much later. As it is still working today I would think it is fair to say he was telling the truth.

I had better explain I have only found 1 of these methods (I think). As you say the ratings are very important. All this they are not the be all, is because he was never going to explain how he formulated them.

Be Luck

EpiG,

Not as many as if they are fastened onto its privates!

Rambling Minister 1350Ca is a selection.

A small dutch 130S: Second Reef and Silver Visage.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

Hi all
i have no other reason for posting than being the 1st post of 2006
HAPPY NEW YEAR to all
all the best
Larry

JiB:
You've started me wondering about the specialities of your local prostitutes with that remark.

EpiG,

You havent tried rubbing jictaiá on them yet!

JIB
new year same old same old
keep up the BRILLIANT work
Larry

JiB: Neither have the kids at Google, what is it?

dont really know what the hoo-haa was about the Champion Hurdle contenders but it appears he is out for the season
ooops he being HARCHIBALD

EpiG,

Jictaiá is an indian name for a fire ant which is also given given to certain little red peppers called 'pimenta malagueta' which are first sun dried and and then ground up in a pestle and mortar. I once inadvertantly went to the bathroom without washing my hands first when consuming this firey condiment, the sensation was one of extreme discomfort!

The same pimenta malagueta is sometimes left to soak in white rum which you then sprinkle on your food. The heat of your tongue causes the rum to vapourise and the sensation is one of swallowing teargas!