3.15 Lingfield

Not VDW but heres my spin on this race.

Taking a quick look at their OR's and comparing against recent form gives a top 6 who appear best in at the weights today,in order of most favourably treated they are

1.ROSES OF SPRING
2.GREENWOOD
3.BYO
4.DUBIAN GIFT
5.WHISTLER
6.OUR FRED

Now looking at recent form using the top 6 converted PM's we have

1.CONNECT
2.DUBIAN GIFT
3.GREENWOOD
4.ARMAGNAC
5.ROSES OF SPRING
6.CAUSTIC WIT

The importance of the draw has been mentioned and i would agree a high draw is VITAL but only after rainfall on an already fast track.With the ground g/f and watered it looks unlikely they have had any rain whatsoever but i am sure the draw will play apart in today's result although over 5f it is less of a problem than over 7f to 10f.With this in mind DUBIAN GIFT'S chances weaken but i dont think its the draw that will beat it.I would be more concerned with the jockey whose overall 5% s/r and a 0/23 for 4yo+ horses at the course mean i will pass it over.GREENWOOD figures promenantly in both list's and has a pass regarding trainer/jockey but drawn in the worst possible position in stall 1 gives it to much to do.BYO's weight today deserves a closer look but its recent form gives it alot to find against a couple of these,this bore out by the fact it doesnt figure at all in the second list and allthough drawn 14 the trainer/jockey course form fail.The others who make an appearance on either list all fall short in one way or another with the exception of ROSES OF SPRING who drawn 12 will have the race run to suit.At first glance would need to improve against three of these (Dubian,Greenwood,Connect)but the negatives against these three cancels out the few pounds it needs to find.

Determined

Here is a little something to get your teeth into before you get the form sorted out, it may even save you a bit of time and money.

William Hill Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) £9,313 2 miles Sandown Good

POSITION CLASS LENGTHS WEIGHT DISTANCE COURSE RACE ODDS OPP WEIGHT OPP ODDS SF

Kings Parade 6/1 10-9 (10th)
6th 61 28 11-0 2m Winc Gr2 Hdl 16/1 11-7 8/1 31
4th 55 5.5 10-8 2m Kemp Hcp Hdl 10/1 10-7 16/1 69
5th 32 45 11-11 2m Wolv Hcp Hdl (4y) 8/1 11-5 3/1

Patricks Fair 7/1 10-0 (4th)
1st 37 1.5 10-0 2m Strat Hcp Hdl 5/1 10-11 3/1f 65
6th 55 15.5 10-0 2m Kemp Hcp Hdl 20/1 10-7 16/1 41
7th 20 35+ 11-2 2m4 Chep Hcp Hdl 4/1 10-0 12/1

The Thatcher 15/2 10-1 (7th)
2nd 26 3 11-7 2m Ling Hcp Hdl 15/2 10-8 15/2 61
11th 61 28+ 11-0 2m Winc Gr2 Hdl 40/1 11-7 8/1
5th 11 38 11-13 2m 30y Wind Hcp Hdl 10/1 11-2 3/1

Pearlstone 9/1 11-10 (fell)
1st 24 4 10-11 2m2 Leop Chase 4/1 11-1 10/1
3rd 233 1 10-10 2m Leop Hcp Hdl 8/1 10-0 10/1
2nd 41 20 11-4 2m4 Punch Cond Hdl Even 12-0 4/5f

Claude Monet 10/1 10-0 (11th)
10th 28 13+ 11-8 2m5 Warw Nov Hdl 9/2 11-8 13/2
1st 17 15 11-0 2m Sand Cond Hdl (5y) 11/4 11-0 2/1f 38
1st 6 2 10-9 2m Strat Nov Hdl 10/3 10-9 6/4f 32

Prince Bless 10/1 11-0 (refused to race)
12th 61 28+ 11-5 2m Winc Gr2 Hdl 33/1 11-7 8/1
12th 55 15+ 11-3 2m Kemp Hcp Hdl 7/1 10-7 16/1
3rd 108 6.5 10-6 2m Sand Hcp Hdl 14/1 10-2 5/1 72

Carved Opel 11/1 11-1 (13th)
2nd 30 4 10-11 2m Nott Lim Hcp Hdl 8/1 11-7 4/7f
8th 55 15+ 11-2 2m Kemp Hcp Hdl 14/1 10-7 16/1
2nd 38 2.5 11-8 2m2 Font Cond Hdl (4y) 5/6f 10-12 11/2 81

Roadster 11/1 10-13 (8th)
3rd 34 6.5 11-6 2m 100y Newb Hcp Hdl 8/1 11-7 11/2 75
7th 40 34+ 11-6 2m6 Strat Hcap Hdl 10/3 11-7 8/1
3rd 55 3.5 10-12 2m Kemp Hcp Hdl 6/1jf 10-7 16/1 77

Cocaine 12/1 10-2 (9th)
5th 61 28 11-0 2m Winc Gr2 Hdl 50/1 11-7 8/1 31
2nd 18 4 11-9 2m Ascot Nov Hdl 5/2 11-7 13/2
1st 6 10 10-10 2m Winc Nov Hdl (4y) 11/2 11-3 5/4f 65

Great Light 12/1 10-12 (2nd)
7th 34 11+ 11-1 2m 100y Newb Hcp Hdl 5/2f 11-7 11/2
2nd 19 0.7 11-4 2m 150y Donc Hcp Hdl 3/1jf 10-12 14/1 28
3rdL 59 6.5 11-5 2m Hayd Gr2 Hdl 12/1 12-0 8/13f 78

Thurston 12/1 10-0 (3rd)
6th 34 11 10-2 2m 100y Newb Hcp Hdl 20/1 11-7 11/2 47
1st 15 6 11-12 2m2 Chelt Nov Hdl 6/1 11-5 50/1
2nd 6 5 11-9 2m Plump Nov Hdl 2/1f 10-11 7/1 22

Desert Hero 20/1 9-8 (1st)
3rd 13 1 11-7 2m Warw Hcp Hdl 7/1 9-13 25/1 58
1st 12 10 11-1 2m 30y Wind Hcp Hdl 11/4f 10-0 11/2 75
3rd 14 11 10-9 2m Winc Hcp Hdl 9/1 11-3 5/2f 41

Baron Blakeney 20/1 10-1 (6th)
5th 13 12.5 11-11 2m4 Donc Cond Hdl 14/1 11-11 7/4f
7th 61 28+ 11-2 2m Winc Gr2 Hdl 40/1 11-7 8/1
fell 53 ++ 10-11 3m2 Donc Cond Hdl 2/1 (?) 10-11 15/8f

Kintbury 33/1 9-7 (5th)
8th 34 11+ 10-5 2m 100y Newb Hcp Hdl 20/1 11-7 11/2
6th 37 24.5 10-5 2m Strat Hcp Hdl 20/1 10-0 5/1
14th 25+ 11-8 2m Winc Hcp Hdl 8/1 11-3 5/2f

Stand Easy 33/1 10-3 (12th)
9th 42 13+ 11-7 2m4 Plump Hcp Hdl 7/1 10-10 13/2
fell 61 ++ 11-2 2m Winc Gr2 Hdl 66/1 11-7 8/1
1st 13 hd 11-13 2m 150y New Ab 7/2f 10-7 16/1 71

Investor

It was that precise phrase of Chaz's to which I took exception. Very unkind, and while a well-known few may view you in that light, I'm sure it is only a small minority.

As you say, everyone's entitled to their opinion, but I still feel very foolish for not backing Hug's Dancer.


Robert

That is indeed interesting, though sadly too late for me as I've now accumulated all I need from the Newspaper Library.

The costs may not work out so very different, as VDW often gave more than one example on a given day, so copying the microfilms could often work out more expensive than paying the £3. Presumably one simply orders by post, which saves hassle. And the copies will, one assumes, always be good. (One drawback with the Newspaper Library microfilms is quality, which is very variable. The copy one makes on the Library's machine is not always wholly readable, and when copying that one ends up with a significant percentage where it is very hard indeed to read the form, though the cards are usually clear enough.)

[This message was edited by Fulham on May 09, 2003 at 12:43 PM.]

Fulham
I wiil continue to look at this thread and contribute where i feel i can,Chaz's comments have hit home a bit and he is right about the u turns i have taken.But as you know yourself,Until you have some idea of how these methods tick that will always happen.Don't punish yourself to much r.e Hugs dancer it was by no means a classic vdw bet,If a bet at all.

Robert,

A big thank you. Going to London for the day on the train would cost me anything from £50 - £100 so before I incur that cost I will give Historical Newspapers a ring.


MOM,

Also, a big thank you to you.


Fulham,

I hope your uncle`s purchase ( if he decides to take the plunge ) wins many races.

I wonder how many times he or she will be 1st on class/form.

**** I`d be interested in whether you have Dubian Gift as a form horse today - AFTER RACING IF NECESSARY AS I DON`T WANT IT SPELLING OUT BEFOREHAND ****

Max,

Thanks for your input.

Cheers,

Investor

Don't concern yourself with my current abashed state. A measure of real embarrassment at what I see as a missed penalty kick with Hug's Dancer, like the similar feeling one has with the odd loser backed, is a good corrective to the sense of arrogance I've alas noted in myself as success rates have increased.

Fulham,

Yet a/n question having just read your message re` yesterday`s 4.05 Chester - was Faithful Warrior the horse you identified as a bet ?

I actually played on the horse e/w thus making a small profit.

Having watched the race I made the decision after the race to make a note not to back this one again as I was of the opinion he didn`t try very hard.

Having since reviewed matters again I feel he needs a strongly run race to be seen to advantage.

If `your horse` was indeed FW are you able to expand on the reasoning given to you by your friend ???

Fulham
I like them two little words,Success rate hopefully they will continue to increase,For all on this thread who have put in a bit of time and effort,Good luck and thanks for your'e earlier comments your'e a decent man Fulham.

315l

I get dubaian gift oof

I think yorkies boy will go well, he definately has the ability to outgun these and he was bang at it LTO, I wont be backing him though.


Investor,

Very magnanimous of you that.

Historical Newpapers update,

Just made a phone call to be told each Sporting Chronicle will cost £23. The £3 is for very recent copies but the older ones are as stated.

Looks like its back to plan A and a trip to London.

For what it's worth,vdw didn't give any examples of sprint races,I am sure there must have been a good reason,and not just coincidence.It is something to be aware of,for any newcomers to vdw.

Chester,there was much discussion about a couple of races there,but did vdw mention any bets at that track,I don't think so,it's all about keeping the odds in your favour.

Determined

I can't view any horse in the 3.15, Dubaian Gift included, as having "good consistent form", and although something will obviously win, personally I wouldn't touch the race with a bargepole.

Even if there were clear form horses with "good consistent form", I'd be wary. I feel sure Pipedreamer is right, and that it was no accident that VDW gave very few examples over the sprint distances.

You are quite correct about yesterday's embarrassment. Having observed Faithful Warrior's previous race, I formed the view he had been run dishonestly, with the purpose of winning at better odds next time out (a bit like VDW's Ekbalco example).

When I assessed the 4.05 at Chester yesterday I was glad to see FW was back to a certainly manageable trip, over a course where he had already won. With top-rated on ability Dayglow Dancer not a form horse in my view, and disregarding FW's last "crooked" run, FW became the clear c/f, with course, distance and going all seemingly fine.

I duly backed FW, EW, rather heavily, but when I came back from lunch I found an email from a friend kindly pointing out that I'd failed to check one of the basics - the weight angle - and on that FW failed, albeit narrowly.

Fortunately I was able to lay off the bulk of my bet on Betfair, but because odds there were drifting, not all of it at an acceptable price. The fact that FW hung on to 4th place happily saved the rest of my stake, but that was down to good luck rather than good judgement.

£23 a copy for the old Chronicles makes one wince, and presumably the old Life's (which I think you will find more useful re calculating ability ratings) are similar in cost. If so, a visit to the Newspaper Library seems the less expensive option. But if the ability ratings of horses in VDW's example races (rather than ARs of horses those horses beat, or were beaten by, in previous races) are all you want, I've got most calculated and copies of the relevant Life material to do the rest, so email me and I'll let you have them.

[This message was edited by Fulham on May 09, 2003 at 02:00 PM.]

3:15 Lingfield.

Not a race I would usually look at. As this thread is about VDW, it is a race he would have looked at so hear goes.

Consistent horses, one only Byo. Not quite sure were he comes in the ability ratings. For me he is out classed, but VDW worked on relativity. So is he a possible selection bearing in mind Desert Hero had no form in the class? Beaten by only a head, I think it would be hard to say he is not in form.

Improving horse dropped in class none.

My way Yorkies Boy is the BEST HORSE in the race. He is neither consistent, or improving. The distance would be a big worry, he hasn't won over it since '98. He may well be running on at the death, but they should have taken him off his feet.

Funnily enough if I was desperate to have a bet in this race the weight would not put me off Dubaian Gift. The fact he is a short runner would worry me more. The draw is of no help, he will use too much energy trying to get the lead. When he gets it, it will just be a case of run and hope.

If I owned Hugs Dancer, I wouldn't run in either race at Ascot. I would wait for the cup races at Goodwood and/or Doncaster.

Investor,

Could you explain why Hugs Dancer failed for you. I find it very interesting that yet again I agree he is the BEST HORSE, using my method. Fulham (and Guest, I expect) also made him the c/form horse. This one, I am as sure as I can be, WOULD have been a VDW selection.

Guest,

Why do you think Johnd used conventional form reading? I would have thought the average punter wouldn't have doubted his staying ability.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
I'm not disputing the fact that Hugs dancer was c/f horse.From the first numerical picture i would totally agree,The horse looked a good bet,And probably was.Now what i'm about to say may be classed as systemising but i think not.You remember me saying that the other picture was evident in all the examples that i have been able to access.Well these factors WEREN'T evident in hugs dancer's form,I know the methods aren't set in stone but even so i couldn't have confidently backed the horse on my findings so far,I may need to look further back with the aid of form books before i could be totally convinced this horse was a bet. Just for info iv'e backed one horse this week Parasol and that most certainly did fit,Short but nevertheless a good bet.

So, Hugs Dancer had won over further, Where would I be without you?
II I will repeat, he is better over shorter!

Nothing to do with vdw but my wife has just informed me,That a punter has walked into a ladbrokes in london and placed 54 grand in readies on CHIEF YEOMAN In the 4.45 at ling and the best of british to him.

Another opportunity missed = Dubian Gift.

Class is the abilty to carry weight and from a bad draw.

Bloody hell !!!


Now just watch another class horse who doesn`t look too consistent do just the same tomorrow = Kangrilla Road.

This one has the draw which unfortunately means the price will skinny.

This one ran in the same Epsom race and was all at sea on the camber.

I haven`t got next weeks 5 fur` sprint dec`s for York yet but this could just win tomorrow and then carry his penalty next week.

How will he look from a VDW angle tomorrow ???

I know its a sprint but they are there to be found.

FULHAM,

I will be in touch via e mail sometime over the weekend.


MTOTO,

A good point with regards the future placing of Hugs Dancer.

I was a little surprised a your comment D.Gift was a short runner but then again from what I see you are right far more than I`ll ever be so I`ll shut up.

Cheers,

D, Just to make you feel slightly worse, I dutched DG with RoS and BYO with a couple of litle savers on Whistler and Our Fred.

It`s called Karma

730w

favoured option anyone?

Virtual certainty?

At the f/c prices:

FO @ 11/4 £37.05

RW @ 100/30 £32.07

UJAV @ 7/2 £30.88

£100 stake, £38.95 prof (hopefully)